Value
6.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.2 |
| P/S | 9.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
ODD · Why this verdict
Why ODDITY Tech (ODD) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.0/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ODDITY Tech is in a confirmed technical downtrend with declining revenue and deteriorating quality metrics, though a high short interest squeeze setup and an ongoing earnings beat pattern offer a countervailing narrative.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ODDITY Tech is in a confirmed downtrend, with the 200-day moving average sloping -19.7% per 30 days, even as a bear-market rally has pushed RSI to an overbought 81. Momentum breakdown | The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within 2 quarters for the downtrend to be considered broken. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe engine separately reads this as an early recovery attempt, since MACD is improving even through the death cross — a pattern that can precede a genuine trend reversal. | ||
Revenue is declining 26% YoY alongside an earnings-quality red flag of -115% FCF-to-net-income and a failing Rule of 40 score of -34, reflecting significant fundamental deterioration. Quality breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and FCF-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within 12 months for these quality flags to clear. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA direct-to-consumer beauty brand can see reported revenue swing sharply due to channel or SKU transitions without reflecting a genuine deterioration in the underlying customer franchise. | ||
The stock has already fallen far enough that the engine's model shows -50.2% implied downside to the prior analyst target, with a deeply negative -3.35 asymmetry ratio. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst price targets should be cut closer to the current price within 2 quarters if fundamentals continue to weaken, or should stay elevated if a turnaround takes hold. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA 77% drawdown from the 52-week high combined with an improving MACD could represent capitulation-level oversold conditions rather than a stock still headed toward its stale, too-high price target. | ||
With 32% short interest against a still-decent quality score, the engine flags a short-squeeze setup risk for the stock. Risk breakdown | Short interest should decline from 32% if the bearish thesis proves overdone, or a squeeze could accelerate a price recovery. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterShort interest this high, alongside 3 consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend, more plausibly reflects informed bearish conviction than a setup primed to squeeze. | ||
Despite a large -239.3% surprise miss at the most recent report, ODDITY has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters overall. Earnings | The company should return to beating estimates at the 2026-08-03 report to restore confidence in the beat pattern. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA miss of this magnitude, layered onto declining revenue and a confirmed technical downtrend, suggests the earnings picture may be deteriorating structurally rather than being a one-off miss. | ||
ODDITY Tech is in a confirmed downtrend, with the 200-day moving average sloping -19.7% per 30 days, even as a bear-market rally has pushed RSI to an overbought 81.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock should reclaim its 200-day moving average within 2 quarters for the downtrend to be considered broken.
CounterThe engine separately reads this as an early recovery attempt, since MACD is improving even through the death cross — a pattern that can precede a genuine trend reversal.
Revenue is declining 26% YoY alongside an earnings-quality red flag of -115% FCF-to-net-income and a failing Rule of 40 score of -34, reflecting significant fundamental deterioration.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and FCF-to-net-income conversion should turn positive within 12 months for these quality flags to clear.
CounterA direct-to-consumer beauty brand can see reported revenue swing sharply due to channel or SKU transitions without reflecting a genuine deterioration in the underlying customer franchise.
The stock has already fallen far enough that the engine's model shows -50.2% implied downside to the prior analyst target, with a deeply negative -3.35 asymmetry ratio.
↓DeterioratingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be cut closer to the current price within 2 quarters if fundamentals continue to weaken, or should stay elevated if a turnaround takes hold.
CounterA 77% drawdown from the 52-week high combined with an improving MACD could represent capitulation-level oversold conditions rather than a stock still headed toward its stale, too-high price target.
With 32% short interest against a still-decent quality score, the engine flags a short-squeeze setup risk for the stock.
↓DeterioratingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest should decline from 32% if the bearish thesis proves overdone, or a squeeze could accelerate a price recovery.
CounterShort interest this high, alongside 3 consecutive quarters of earnings misses and a confirmed downtrend, more plausibly reflects informed bearish conviction than a setup primed to squeeze.
Despite a large -239.3% surprise miss at the most recent report, ODDITY has beaten estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters overall.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company should return to beating estimates at the 2026-08-03 report to restore confidence in the beat pattern.
CounterA miss of this magnitude, layered onto declining revenue and a confirmed technical downtrend, suggests the earnings picture may be deteriorating structurally rather than being a one-off miss.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.1 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 3.3 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -434% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Rule of 40: -35 (fail)
- ▸Weak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -25%
Momentum
7.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 2.8 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.6 |
- ▸Overbought bear rally (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -17.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
- ▸Volume surge (2.3x avg) on up move
Sentiment
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 1.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.36 (n=5)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $2,464,114 (0.334% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 4.9 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
1.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 1.6 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
- ▸High short interest: 34%
- ▸High IV: 88%
- ▸Above max pain $3
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.9>=5.5
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:EARNINGS:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:67d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-3.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.33%=HEAVY
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.9>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-2.97
Upside
-44.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -72% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -3.0=NEGATIVE outcome against Momentum at 7.9 and asymmetric R:R of -2.97.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.9, Value at 6.5, and Insider at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Technical at 1.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 2.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.97 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Confirmed Downtrend Bear Rally
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope stays below 0% or the stock fails to reclaim the 200-day MA within 2 quarters.
- P2Declining Revenue Quality Flags
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 30% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters or FCF-to-net-income stays below -100% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Deeply Negative Asymmetry
Trip ifThe stock falls further such that downside to the analyst target exceeds 60% within 2 quarters.
- P4Short Squeeze Setup High Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 40% of float while price continues to make new lows over the next 2 quarters.
- P5Earnings Beat Pattern Despite Recent Miss
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the 2026-08-03 report, extending the pattern to 2 consecutive misses.