Value
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.2 |
| PEG | 6.9 |
- ▸PEG: 1.03
ODC · Why this verdict
Why Oil-Dri Corporation Of America (ODC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
A negative news-driven modifier downgraded the engine's recommendation from hold to sell for existing holders, reflecting a specific adverse news development. Warnings | The news modifier should reverse or expire within 1-2 quarters if the underlying news event resolves favorably. | →Stable |
| CounterNews-driven modifiers are often short-lived overlays on top of otherwise stable fundamentals, and may not reflect a lasting change in the investment case. | ||
Oil-Dri Corporation has missed earnings estimates in each of the last 4 reported quarters, averaging a -51.5% surprise, a concerning pattern of estimate misses. Bear case | The company should beat or meet estimates at least once in the next 4 quarters to break the miss streak. | →Stable |
| CounterThe miss streak in the underlying data reflects older reported quarters and may not represent the company's current, more recent operating trend. | ||
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout — golden cross, trading above all moving averages, RSI 65 with bullish MACD — despite the negative earnings and news backdrop. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above all major moving averages for at least one quarter to confirm the breakout is durable. | →Stable |
| CounterA technical breakout that runs counter to a negative earnings and news backdrop is at high risk of failing once the broader market recognizes the fundamental deterioration. | ||
The company maintains a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 even as the engine flagged an earnings-quality warning at 63% FCF-to-net-income conversion. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve above 80% within 4 quarters for the earnings-quality warning to clear. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score this strong, built on multiple fundamental improvement signals, suggests the FCF conversion dip may be a one-off working-capital timing issue rather than deteriorating earnings quality. | ||
Insiders sold a net $101,553 over the trailing 90 days in a single low-materiality transaction, per the engine's insider assessment. Insider | Insider activity should remain low-materiality, well under 1% of market cap, for this not to be read as a warning sign. | →Stable |
| CounterA single, low-materiality insider sale representing only 0.007% of market cap is not a meaningful signal and could simply reflect routine estate or tax planning. | ||
A negative news-driven modifier downgraded the engine's recommendation from hold to sell for existing holders, reflecting a specific adverse news development.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The news modifier should reverse or expire within 1-2 quarters if the underlying news event resolves favorably.
CounterNews-driven modifiers are often short-lived overlays on top of otherwise stable fundamentals, and may not reflect a lasting change in the investment case.
Oil-Dri Corporation has missed earnings estimates in each of the last 4 reported quarters, averaging a -51.5% surprise, a concerning pattern of estimate misses.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should beat or meet estimates at least once in the next 4 quarters to break the miss streak.
CounterThe miss streak in the underlying data reflects older reported quarters and may not represent the company's current, more recent operating trend.
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout — golden cross, trading above all moving averages, RSI 65 with bullish MACD — despite the negative earnings and news backdrop.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above all major moving averages for at least one quarter to confirm the breakout is durable.
CounterA technical breakout that runs counter to a negative earnings and news backdrop is at high risk of failing once the broader market recognizes the fundamental deterioration.
The company maintains a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 even as the engine flagged an earnings-quality warning at 63% FCF-to-net-income conversion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should improve above 80% within 4 quarters for the earnings-quality warning to clear.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score this strong, built on multiple fundamental improvement signals, suggests the FCF conversion dip may be a one-off working-capital timing issue rather than deteriorating earnings quality.
Insiders sold a net $101,553 over the trailing 90 days in a single low-materiality transaction, per the engine's insider assessment.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity should remain low-materiality, well under 1% of market cap, for this not to be read as a warning sign.
CounterA single, low-materiality insider sale representing only 0.007% of market cap is not a meaningful signal and could simply reflect routine estate or tax planning.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oil-Dri Corporation has formed a bullish technical breakout with strong quality metrics, but a consecutive earnings-miss pattern and a negative news-driven downgrade to sell-if-holding cloud the near-term outlook.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.0 |
| ROA | 7.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 5.7 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.9 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 63% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 7.1 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 9.6 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 78)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $101,553 (0.007% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.3 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| beta | 8.4 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
Catalyst
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:93d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5; weakest: Catalyst at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.5, Peer rank at 6.9, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.6, Technical at 4.4, and Momentum at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the 2026-10-08 report, extending the streak to 5 consecutive misses.
- P2Negative News Modifier Downgrade
Trip ifThe negative news modifier persists for more than 2 consecutive quarters without reverting the recommendation to hold.
- P3Bullish Technical Breakout
Trip ifPrice closes back below the 200-day moving average within 2 quarters, invalidating the breakout.
- P4Quality Strength Despite Fcf Warning
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 50% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Modest Insider Selling
Trip ifNet insider selling exceeds $500,000 over the next 90-day window.