Value
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.5 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.7 |
| PEG | 4.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 19.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.77
NWPX · Why this verdict
Why NWPX Infrastructure (NWPX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NWPX Infrastructure combines a perfect earnings beat streak, double-digit revenue growth and excellent cash conversion, but heavy insider selling, Utah concentration and a price above the analyst target keep the setup unattractive for adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NWPX has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 49.6%, most recently $1.62 actual versus $1.31 estimated. Earnings | EPS continues to beat consensus, including the report due in 4 days, with average surprise staying positive. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe extended history shows misses in 2025-04, 2025-02 and 2023-11, so the streak may reflect low estimates rather than durable execution. | ||
Quarterly revenue reached about $159.5M versus about $133.2M a year earlier, roughly 20% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $167.8M. Revenue quarters | Revenue keeps growing at a double-digit YoY pace over the next four quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRevenue is lumpy quarter to quarter (the December 2025 quarter was $125.6M versus $151.1M the prior quarter), so one weak quarter can erase the trend. | ||
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 125% FCF to net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion above 100% can come from working-capital releases that reverse, and gross margin scores only 0.2/10, leaving little cushion if pricing weakens. | ||
The stock is oversold (RSI 27) and below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 6.2% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the OBV trend stops falling within the next two quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFalling OBV signals volume distribution, and the momentum score of 2.6 shows sellers in control, so the oversold reading may be the start of a larger decline. | ||
Insiders sold about $6.77M over 90 days across 24 sales with zero buys, equal to 0.722% of market cap and rated extreme severity. Insider | Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMuch of the selling may be routine diversification or pre-scheduled plan sales with no information content, and institutions are accumulating. | ||
NWPX has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of 49.6%, most recently $1.62 actual versus $1.31 estimated.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS continues to beat consensus, including the report due in 4 days, with average surprise staying positive.
CounterThe extended history shows misses in 2025-04, 2025-02 and 2023-11, so the streak may reflect low estimates rather than durable execution.
Quarterly revenue reached about $159.5M versus about $133.2M a year earlier, roughly 20% YoY growth, with next-quarter consensus near $167.8M.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Revenue keeps growing at a double-digit YoY pace over the next four quarters.
CounterRevenue is lumpy quarter to quarter (the December 2025 quarter was $125.6M versus $151.1M the prior quarter), so one weak quarter can erase the trend.
Quality notes cite excellent cash conversion of 125% FCF to net income and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF to net income stays above 100% and the Piotroski score stays at 7 or higher.
CounterCash conversion above 100% can come from working-capital releases that reverse, and gross margin scores only 0.2/10, leaving little cushion if pricing weakens.
The stock is oversold (RSI 27) and below its 200-day average, but that average is still rising 6.2% over 30 days, a pullback in an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the OBV trend stops falling within the next two quarters.
CounterFalling OBV signals volume distribution, and the momentum score of 2.6 shows sellers in control, so the oversold reading may be the start of a larger decline.
Insiders sold about $6.77M over 90 days across 24 sales with zero buys, equal to 0.722% of market cap and rated extreme severity.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling continues without offsetting open-market buys over the next 12 months.
CounterMuch of the selling may be routine diversification or pre-scheduled plan sales with no information content, and institutions are accumulating.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.1 |
| ROA | 4.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.2 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 4.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.1 |
| FCF quality | 9.2 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 125% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.4 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 9.3 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $6,773,284 (0.705% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.0 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 4.9 |
| 52w position | 3.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 5.6 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 4.6 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD_NO_UPSIDEPassed (4)
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.0=NEGATIVE
- INSIDER:0.70%=EXTREME
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.02
Upside
-7.0%
Downside
6.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: 8K:CLEAN. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 4.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.9; the weakest are Momentum at 4.1, Technical at 4.2, and Insider at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.02 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Double Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 8% YoY from roughly 20% currently.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF to net income falls below 80% from current 125%.
- P4Pullback In Intact Uptrend
Trip ifThe 30-day change in the 200-day moving average falls below 0% from current +6.2%.
- P5Heavy Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider open-market buying exceeds $1M in a 90-day window, or 90-day selling falls below 0.2% of market cap.