Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 3.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.2x
- ▸PEG: 2.73
NWPX · Why this verdict
Why NWPX Infrastructure (NWPX) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving the engine's model showing -32.1% implied downside to that target and a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.23. Bear case | Analyst price targets should be raised above the current price within 2 quarters if the growth story continues to justify a higher valuation. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock reaching its price target after a 4-quarter perfect earnings beat streak often prompts analysts to raise targets rather than signaling the rally is over. | ||
NWPX Infrastructure exhibits a strong growth profile, with 7.3% revenue growth and a growth score of 8.7, one of the highest-scoring dimensions for the stock. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should stay above 5% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth-leader profile. | →Stable |
| CounterSteel and infrastructure end markets are cyclical, and a growth score this elevated relative to a mid-single-digit revenue growth rate may not persist through a downturn in construction demand. | ||
NWPX has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters by an average of 50.5%, with the next report on 2026-08-06 acting as a near-term catalyst. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the 2026-08-06 report. | →Stable |
| CounterA perfect beat streak this consistent raises the risk that expectations have already priced in continued outperformance, making a beat-but-sell-off outcome more likely. | ||
The stock failed both the momentum gate (4.2 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (a negative -2.23 ratio), signaling the engine views the current risk/reward as unfavorable despite strong fundamentals. Engine gate (failed) | Momentum should recover above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should turn positive within 2 quarters for the setup to re-qualify as attractive. | →Stable |
| CounterA momentum score just 0.3 points below threshold and a range-bound RSI of 60 reflect a consolidation phase after a run-up, not a deteriorating trend. | ||
The business converts cash at 128% of net income with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high-quality underlying earnings. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay above 100% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterCash conversion above 100% can reflect working-capital timing benefits that reverse in subsequent quarters rather than a permanent quality improvement. | ||
The stock has already reached its prior analyst price target, leaving the engine's model showing -32.1% implied downside to that target and a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.23.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised above the current price within 2 quarters if the growth story continues to justify a higher valuation.
CounterA stock reaching its price target after a 4-quarter perfect earnings beat streak often prompts analysts to raise targets rather than signaling the rally is over.
NWPX Infrastructure exhibits a strong growth profile, with 7.3% revenue growth and a growth score of 8.7, one of the highest-scoring dimensions for the stock.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should stay above 5% YoY over the next 12 months to sustain the growth-leader profile.
CounterSteel and infrastructure end markets are cyclical, and a growth score this elevated relative to a mid-single-digit revenue growth rate may not persist through a downturn in construction demand.
NWPX has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters by an average of 50.5%, with the next report on 2026-08-06 acting as a near-term catalyst.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter at the 2026-08-06 report.
CounterA perfect beat streak this consistent raises the risk that expectations have already priced in continued outperformance, making a beat-but-sell-off outcome more likely.
The stock failed both the momentum gate (4.2 versus a 4.5 threshold) and the asymmetry gate (a negative -2.23 ratio), signaling the engine views the current risk/reward as unfavorable despite strong fundamentals.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above 4.5 and the asymmetry ratio should turn positive within 2 quarters for the setup to re-qualify as attractive.
CounterA momentum score just 0.3 points below threshold and a range-bound RSI of 60 reflect a consolidation phase after a run-up, not a deteriorating trend.
The business converts cash at 128% of net income with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, indicating high-quality underlying earnings.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should stay above 100% over the next 12 months.
CounterCash conversion above 100% can reflect working-capital timing benefits that reverse in subsequent quarters rather than a permanent quality improvement.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NWPX Infrastructure shows a strong growth profile and a perfect earnings beat streak, but having already reached its analyst price target, the engine's momentum and asymmetry gates now flag the risk/reward as unfavorable.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.6 |
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.0 |
| FCF quality | 9.3 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 128% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
8.7/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.3 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.2 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.6 |
| erm sentiment | 7.2 |
- ▸Below analyst target
- ▸Estimates rising as sentiment proxy (+5.5%)
Insider
6.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 7.9 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.9 |
| quality rank | 8.1 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.7 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.8 |
| days to cover | 7.1 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 9.2 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 8.9 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.5% (30d)
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.1<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-2.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.57
Upside
-29.7%
Downside
11.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 8.7; weakest: Momentum at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.7, Catalyst at 7.8, and Insider at 6.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.1, Value at 4.0, and Sentiment at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.57 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 3% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Analyst Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target stays below the current price for 2 consecutive quarters without an upward revision.
- P3Earnings Beat Streak Catalyst
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the 2026-08-06 report, breaking the 4-quarter beat streak.
- P4Momentum Asymmetry Gate Failures
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.5 for 2 consecutive quarters after the earnings report.
- P5Excellent Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80% for 2 consecutive quarters.