Value
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3 |
| P/S | 9.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
NUE · Why this verdict
Why Nucor (NUE) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nucor is a high-growth steel producer trading at a forward P/E of 15.7x with a PEG of 0.04, supported by 21% YoY revenue growth and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, but momentum is marginally below threshold and the stock sits near analyst targets, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nucor beat consensus EPS estimates by 14.67% and 21.26% in the two most recent beats, with an average surprise of nearly 8% across the last four quarters, suggesting a pattern of disciplined cost management. Earnings | EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat-rate above zero. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOne miss in the last four quarters and a negative free cash flow quality flag suggest earnings may be harder to sustain as capital spending rises. | ||
Zero net insider selling over the past 90 days and a very low put/call ratio of 0.298 indicate that neither insiders nor options traders are positioned for a meaningful price decline. Insider | Insider activity remains net neutral or net positive and the put/call ratio stays below 0.5 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe absence of insider selling may simply reflect pre-scheduled selling plan (Rule 10b5-1) blackout periods rather than genuine confidence, limiting the signal's strength. | ||
Nucor's PEG ratio of 0.04 and 21% YoY revenue growth indicate that the market is not fully pricing in the company's growth trajectory relative to its earnings multiple. Valuation breakdown | Revenue growth sustains above 15% YoY and the forward P/E re-rates closer to peer averages over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSteel is a cyclical commodity business, and rapid revenue growth can reverse sharply in a demand downturn, making a low PEG misleading at cycle peaks. | ||
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, supporting the thesis that Nucor's fundamentals remain sound. Quality breakdown | The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above over the next four quarters, indicating no material deterioration in financial health. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical data; steel industry cost pressures or debt increases could erode balance sheet quality within a single reporting cycle. | ||
Nucor beat consensus EPS estimates by 14.67% and 21.26% in the two most recent beats, with an average surprise of nearly 8% across the last four quarters, suggesting a pattern of disciplined cost management.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise remains positive in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, maintaining the beat-rate above zero.
CounterOne miss in the last four quarters and a negative free cash flow quality flag suggest earnings may be harder to sustain as capital spending rises.
Zero net insider selling over the past 90 days and a very low put/call ratio of 0.298 indicate that neither insiders nor options traders are positioned for a meaningful price decline.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider activity remains net neutral or net positive and the put/call ratio stays below 0.5 over the next 12 months.
CounterThe absence of insider selling may simply reflect pre-scheduled selling plan (Rule 10b5-1) blackout periods rather than genuine confidence, limiting the signal's strength.
Nucor's PEG ratio of 0.04 and 21% YoY revenue growth indicate that the market is not fully pricing in the company's growth trajectory relative to its earnings multiple.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth sustains above 15% YoY and the forward P/E re-rates closer to peer averages over the next 12 months.
CounterSteel is a cyclical commodity business, and rapid revenue growth can reverse sharply in a demand downturn, making a low PEG misleading at cycle peaks.
A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 signals broad financial health across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, supporting the thesis that Nucor's fundamentals remain sound.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The Piotroski score remains at 7 or above over the next four quarters, indicating no material deterioration in financial health.
CounterA high Piotroski score reflects historical data; steel industry cost pressures or debt increases could erode balance sheet quality within a single reporting cycle.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.9 |
| ROA | 5.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 6.7 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 32% YoY
Momentum
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.1 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 7.3 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 79)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 5.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.51 (n=5)
Insider
5.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.3 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $10,147,187 (0.016% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.7 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.3 |
| support resistance | 0.9 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 4.4 |
| put call | 9.4 |
| implied vol | 6.3 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 3.8 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(4)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:88d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.30
Upside
-4.5%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=7.5
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.85>1.3
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:8.1>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Technical at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Momentum at 8.1, and Value at 7.5; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Insider at 5.2, and Catalyst at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.30 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Low Peg Growth At Value
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Piotroski Balance Sheet Strength
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score drops below 6 in any reported quarter.
- P3Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Insider Signal And Low Short Interest
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 1.0 or net insider selling exceeds 50,000 shares in a 90-day window.