Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.8 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 26.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.74
NPO · Why this verdict
Why Enpro (NPO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Enpro has delivered strong cash generation with a Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and free cash flow at 308% of net income, but its valuation has moved ahead of fundamentals with a negative asymmetry ratio and the stock trading above its analyst price target, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Enpro converts earnings to free cash flow at an extraordinary rate of 308% relative to net income, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong underlying financial health. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect working capital timing rather than durable operating quality; margin compression at 4.6 gross score signals limited pricing power. | ||
Enpro has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.3%, indicating consistent execution against expectations. Earnings | Earnings beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters or better over the next four reporting periods. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of 1.3% is thin, suggesting estimates are already well-calibrated and large beats are unlikely; recent miss in August 2025 shows vulnerability. | ||
The put/call ratio stands at 2.48 and implied volatility is 66%, indicating the options market is pricing in significant downside risk and hedging activity against this position. Options | Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 over the next 12 months as bearish hedging pressure normalizes. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian buy signals when driven by protective hedges on long positions rather than speculative bearish bets. | ||
The stock is trading above its analyst price target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.4, meaning the downside risk of 15% exceeds any remaining upside, reducing reward-to-risk attractiveness. Warnings | Price retreats to a level where upside to analyst target rises above 10% or the analyst target is raised higher than the current price within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterStocks can sustain above-target prices for extended periods if fundamental momentum continues to surprise; the golden cross and RSI at 70 indicate strong near-term price momentum. | ||
Enpro converts earnings to free cash flow at an extraordinary rate of 308% relative to net income, with a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, indicating strong underlying financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow conversion remains above 200% of net income and Piotroski score stays at 8 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterHigh free cash flow relative to net income can reflect working capital timing rather than durable operating quality; margin compression at 4.6 gross score signals limited pricing power.
Enpro has beaten analyst earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 1.3%, indicating consistent execution against expectations.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beat rate remains at 3 out of 4 quarters or better over the next four reporting periods.
CounterThe average surprise of 1.3% is thin, suggesting estimates are already well-calibrated and large beats are unlikely; recent miss in August 2025 shows vulnerability.
The put/call ratio stands at 2.48 and implied volatility is 66%, indicating the options market is pricing in significant downside risk and hedging activity against this position.
↓DeterioratingOptions
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio declines below 1.5 over the next 12 months as bearish hedging pressure normalizes.
CounterElevated put/call ratios can be contrarian buy signals when driven by protective hedges on long positions rather than speculative bearish bets.
The stock is trading above its analyst price target with a negative asymmetry ratio of -1.4, meaning the downside risk of 15% exceeds any remaining upside, reducing reward-to-risk attractiveness.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- Price retreats to a level where upside to analyst target rises above 10% or the analyst target is raised higher than the current price within 12 months.
CounterStocks can sustain above-target prices for extended periods if fundamental momentum continues to surprise; the golden cross and RSI at 70 indicate strong near-term price momentum.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.0 |
| ROA | 3.2 |
| Gross margin | 4.6 |
| Op margin | 6.8 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 7.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 297% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 37%
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.8 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.2 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 7.0 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 6.9 |
| 52w position | 4.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 1.6 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 3.8 |
| beta | 4.7 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 84.67
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 3 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:3d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.86
Upside
+16.4%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.58>1.3
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Sentiment at 7.2 (strongest), but MOMENTUM:3.4<4.5 also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.2, Insider at 6.3, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Momentum at 3.4, Peer rank at 4.0, and Value at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.86 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow conversion falls below 150% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Elevated Options Market Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.5 or implied volatility exceeds 80%.
- P4Negative Price Asymmetry
Trip ifStock price rises above $380 without a corresponding analyst target increase above $380.