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NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.Sell6.0·$17.21-0.64%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NPB shows strong 28% revenue growth and an attractive valuation versus peers, but the stock trades near its analyst target with limited remaining upside and a recent pair of earnings misses tempers the growth story.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation Vs PeersStable
  • Strong Revenue Growth ProfileStable
  • Positive News Sentiment TailwindDeteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. (NPB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.21 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, operating nationwide through a digital-first mortgage and deposit platform with loan offices in 25 cities across 15 states. Revenue... Read more

$17.21+0.7% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#110 of 227 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield0.58%Payout4.31%sustainable
Stop $16.39Target $17.33(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$20.38+18.4%3 analysts
$17.33our TP
$17.21price
$20.38mean
$22

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.21 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

About Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.

Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, completed its February 2025 initial public offering on the NYSE under the ticker NPB after being founded in 1999 as a mortgage portfolio lender in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. As of December 31, 2025, the bank served clients in all 50 states and the District of Columbia through a primarily digital platform, generating 30.4 percent of 2025 revenue from its Mortgage Purchase Program warehouse-lending business.

Northpointe earns revenue through two segments: the Mortgage Purchase Program (MPP), which provides independent mortgage bankers nationwide with collateralized mortgage purchase facilities as an alternative to traditional warehouse lending before originated loans are sold into the secondary market via Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae or institutional investors, and Retail Banking, spanning residential mortgage origination through Consumer Direct and Traditional Retail channels, digital deposit banking priced in the top 25 of nationwide deposit rates, and loan servicing for FNMA, FHLMC and FHLB. Approximately 99 percent of the loan portfolio is collateralized by real estate, and brokered deposits, at $2.64 billion, funded 54.1 percent of total deposits as of December 31, 2025. The company also specializes in first-lien home equity lines tied to a demand deposit sweep account, marketed as its proprietary All-in-One loan product.

Show full overview

Northpointe's reliance on brokered deposits for more than half of its funding base exposes it to a liquidity risk uncommon among traditional community banks: the 10-K cautions that brokered depositors may not renew maturing deposits, forcing the bank to pay higher rates to retain or replace that funding, and that losing its well-capitalized status would bar it from accepting or renewing brokered deposits without an FDIC waiver. The company also depends on third-party participants who buy participation interests in MPP facilities to manage concentration risk and provide funding; those participants are not obligated to renew their positions, and their withdrawal could force Northpointe to fund MPP commitments itself or curtail the business.

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From Northpointe Bancshares, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202682d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 50%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.4
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$595M
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn34.9%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth9.8%
Beta
Dividend0.58%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/3M
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $16.80Resistance $18.02

Price Targets

$16
$17
A.Upside+0.7%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.7% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NPB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $17.21 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $16.39. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NPB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $17.33 (+0.7% upside). Prior stop was $16.39. Stop-loss: $16.39.

What are the risks of investing in NPB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is NPB overvalued or undervalued?

Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.4 (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NPB?

7 analysts cover NPB with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $20.

What does Northpointe Bancshares, Inc. do?Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank...

Northpointe Bancshares is a Grand Rapids, Michigan-based bank holding company for Northpointe Bank, the largest bank headquartered in Michigan, operating nationwide through a digital-first mortgage and deposit platform with loan offices in 25 cities across 15 states. Revenue comes from Mortgage Purchase Program warehouse lending (30.4% of 2025 revenue) and Retail Banking (residential lending, digital deposits, loan servicing), with real estate collateralizing about 99% of its loan portfolio.

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