Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 4.4 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.0x
- ▸PEG: 2.11
NJR · Why this verdict
Why NewJersey Resources (NJR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 3.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.8 |
| Current ratio | 3.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -90% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
3.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 7.7 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 6.3 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,307,361 (0.023% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 6.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.5 |
| support resistance | 5.6 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 6.5 |
| put call | 8.6 |
| implied vol | 2.8 |
| beta | 9.9 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸High IV: 63%
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.20
Upside
-6.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.20 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.8, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Growth at 3.3, Insider at 3.9, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.