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NGSNatural Gas Services Group, IncHold6.7·$40.71+5.03%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Natural Gas Services Group combines a perfect earnings beat streak and best-in-class margins with an earnings-quality red flag on free cash flow and a momentum pullback, leaving the growth-at-a-reasonable-price case intact but unconfirmed technically.

Thesis pillars

  • Perfect Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Best In Class Margins And PiotroskiStable
  • Earnings Quality Red FlagStable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Natural Gas Services Group, Inc (NGS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Permian and Devon Energy (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin (78.0%).

Natural Gas Services Group rents, designs, installs and services natural gas engine and electric motor drive compressors used in oil and gas production, operating 1,914 compressors totaling 662,542 horsepower as of December 31, 2025, concentrated in the Permian Basin (78% of... Read more

$40.71+18.0% A.UpsideScore 6.7/10#3 of 37 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-15.01%
IncomeYield0.91%Payout12.21%sustainable
Stop $37.86Target $48.02(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$56.50+38.8%2 analysts
$48.02our TP
$40.71price
$56.50mean
$60

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Permian and Devon Energy (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin (78.0%). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Natural Gas Services Group, Inc

About Natural Gas Services Group, Inc

Natural Gas Services Group generated approximately $164 million in rental revenue during 2025, up 14 percent from the prior year, operating a fleet of 1,914 compressors totaling 662,542 horsepower that is concentrated in the Permian Basin, which accounted for 78 percent of rental revenue. Horsepower utilization ended the year at 84.9 percent, up from 82.1 percent in 2024.

The company earns revenue primarily by renting natural gas engine and electric motor drive compressors to exploration and production companies for gas-lift and other applications in unconventional oil and gas wells, supplemented by compressor sales and aftermarket maintenance services. Two customers, Occidental Permian and Devon Energy, together accounted for 59 percent of revenue in 2025 and 62 percent of accounts receivable, while roughly half of rental agreements run month-to-month, representing about a quarter of rented horsepower. Natural Gas Services Group sources engines, compressors and other components from third-party assemblers and suppliers on a purchase-order basis rather than manufacturing in-house, and funds fleet expansion through a $400 million secured revolving credit facility, of which $230 million was drawn and $170 million remained available as of December 31, 2025.

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Natural Gas Services Group's customers face an evolving methane-regulation landscape rather than a uniform tightening: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, postponed the EPA's methane waste emissions charge under the Inflation Reduction Act to 2034, and in September 2025 the EPA proposed removing Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program obligations for most source categories entirely. At the same time, states including Colorado and New Mexico have tightened their own permitting and flaring rules, meaning compliance costs for the company's E&P customers, and by extension demand for its compression fleet, depend more on state-level policy than federal direction in the near term.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

From Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Aug 10, 202634d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Permian and Devon Energy (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin (78.0%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.8
P/E (Fwd)16.0
Mkt Cap$483M
EV/EBITDA8.5
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE8.1%
Rev Growth17.1%
Beta0.40
Dividend0.91%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.70neutral
IV64%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerOccidental Permian and Devon Energy59%
    10-K Item 1: 'our revenues from Occidental Permian, LTD. (“Oxy”) and Devon Energy Corporation (“Devon”) amounted to 59 percent, 59 percent and 52 percent of our revenue on a combined basis, respectively'
  • HIGHGeographicPermian Basin78%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest rental area is the Permian Basin (78 percent of rental revenues in 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesMomentum 4.1<4.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 34d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.01Resistance $44.60

Price Targets

$38
$48
A.Upside+18.0%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (34d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NGS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.71, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Permian and Devon Energy (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin (78.0%). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $48.02 (+18.0%), stop $37.86 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 6.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NGS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.02 (+18.0% upside). Target $48.02 (+18.0%), stop $37.86 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $37.86.

What are the risks of investing in NGS?

Concentration risk — Customer: Occidental Permian and Devon Energy (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Permian Basin (78.0%).

Is NGS overvalued or undervalued?

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc trades at a P/E of 21.8 (forward 16.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NGS?

9 analysts cover NGS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $57.

What does Natural Gas Services Group, Inc do?Natural Gas Services Group rents, designs, installs and services natural gas engine and electric motor drive...

Natural Gas Services Group rents, designs, installs and services natural gas engine and electric motor drive compressors used in oil and gas production, operating 1,914 compressors totaling 662,542 horsepower as of December 31, 2025, concentrated in the Permian Basin (78% of rental revenue). The company generated approximately $164 million in rental revenue in 2025, up 14%, with two customers, Occidental Permian and Devon Energy, together accounting for 59% of revenue.

Related stocks: FLOC (Flowco Holdings Inc.) · WHD (Cactus, Inc. Class A Common Sto) · USAC (USA Compression Partners, LP) · VTOL (Bristow Group, Inc.) · NESR (National Energy Services Reunit)
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