Value
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.7 |
| PEG | 9.1 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.65
- ▸Attractively valued
NEXN · Why this verdict
Why Nexxen International (NEXN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nexxen screens cheap with strong cash conversion, but a below-floor risk score, notable insider selling, and overbought momentum against a flat trend support the engine's extreme-risk exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion. | ↑Improving |
| CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate. | ||
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit. Bear case | The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending. Momentum breakdown | The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains. | ||
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion.
CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate.
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business.
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal.
↑ImprovingInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months.
CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.9 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 1.7 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 466% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.0 |
| MACD | 3.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.7 |
- ▸Uptrend pullback (RSI 35) - buy opportunity
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.37 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 71%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $114,180 (0.023% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 2.9 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 5.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 4.8 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 113%
Catalyst
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.7 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
7.10
Upside
+49.0%
Downside
6.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.45>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.1<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.10 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.3, Sentiment at 7.8, and Technical at 7.7; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Momentum at 4.1, and Catalyst at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.10 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation With Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifRule of 40 score rises above 40 from the current 22.
- P2Risk Score Below Floor
Trip ifRisk score falls below 2.0, a further deterioration from the current 2.7.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $1,000,000 over the next 90 days, deepening the current $656,077 bearish signal.
- P4Overbought Momentum With Flat TrendTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 74, unwinding the overbought condition.