Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.2 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
- ▸Attractively valued
NEXN · Why this verdict
Why Nexxen International (NEXN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion. | →Stable |
| CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate. | ||
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit. Bear case | The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business. | ||
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal. Insider | Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending. Momentum breakdown | The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains. | ||
Nexxen trades at a forward P/E of 7.7x with a PEG of 0.60, and shows excellent cash conversion at 222% of FCF-to-net-income.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months given the strong cash conversion.
CounterCheap valuation and strong cash conversion can still coexist with a failing Rule of 40 score (22, below the 40 growth-plus-margin bar), signaling the business isn't growing fast enough to re-rate.
The engine's risk score sits at 2.7, below its 3.0 minimum floor, flagged as an extreme risk factor warranting an exit.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The risk score should recover above 3.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA below-floor risk score triggered by elevated volatility or beta doesn't necessarily reflect deteriorating fundamentals at the underlying ad-tech business.
Insiders have been net sellers of $656,077 (0.123% of market cap), with a bearish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider selling activity should slow or reverse to net buying over the next 12 months.
CounterInsider sales can reflect routine diversification or scheduled selling plans rather than a negative view of the business.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 74, trading above its 200-day moving average, though the MA slope itself is flat rather than clearly trending.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The overbought condition should resolve with the stock consolidating rather than reversing sharply, over the next 12 months.
CounterAn overbought RSI at 74 combined with a flat long-term trend often precedes a pullback rather than continued gains.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nexxen screens cheap with strong cash conversion, but a below-floor risk score, notable insider selling, and overbought momentum against a flat trend support the engine's extreme-risk exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.2 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.9 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 222% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Rule of 40: 22 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.2/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 42%
Insider
3.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $656,077 (0.126% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.7 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 5.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.0 |
| days to cover | 1.4 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 9.7 |
- ▸High IV: 82%
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 6.6 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.40
Upside
+23.4%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.46>1.3, MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:6.5>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Insider at 3.2. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Sentiment at 7.2, and Momentum at 6.5; the weakest are Insider at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.9, and Technical at 4.7. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation With Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifRule of 40 score rises above 40 from the current 22.
- P2Risk Score Below Floor
Trip ifRisk score falls below 2.0, a further deterioration from the current 2.7.
- P3Notable Insider Selling
Trip ifInsider selling exceeds $1,000,000 over the next 90 days, deepening the current $656,077 bearish signal.
- P4Overbought Momentum With Flat Trend
Trip ifRSI falls below 50 from the current 74, unwinding the overbought condition.