Value
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.5 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.8 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 22.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.62
NDAQ · Why this verdict
Why Nasdaq (NDAQ) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Nasdaq, Inc. is a wide-moat exchange and financial technology business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak, 35% operating margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9 — a true compounder-quality franchise — though concentrated exposure to its Nasdaq-100 core indices at 73% of revenue and a current price offering only 5.3% upside to analyst targets limit the near-term asymmetry.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Nasdaq operates with a wide economic moat, 35% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a durable franchise with pricing power across exchange listings, market data, and financial technology services. Quality breakdown | Quality score remains above 7.0 and net margins hold above 30% over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterExchange businesses face structural fee compression from regulators and competition, and the moat may erode faster than expected if dark pool and alternative trading venue market share continues to grow. | ||
Nasdaq has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters with a consistent 3-4% positive surprise each quarter, reflecting a business with predictable revenue streams and tight operational management. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, maintaining the consistency of the beat track record. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterConsistent 3-4% beats may indicate that analysts have already adjusted their models to account for conservative guidance, and any reduction in trading volumes or data licensing renewals could break the streak. | ||
Approximately 73% of revenue is tied to the Nasdaq-100 core indices, meaning a significant decline in index-linked assets under management, licensing fees, or ETF assets would disproportionately impact the company's top line. Bear case | Non-Nasdaq-100-index revenue streams grow faster than overall revenue and reduce the concentration to below 65% over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe Nasdaq-100's global brand recognition and ETF ecosystem are extraordinarily entrenched — the concentration reflects a dominant position in a growing market rather than a vulnerability. | ||
With only 5.3% upside implied to the analyst consensus price target, the stock is priced for perfection at current levels, meaning execution needs to be flawless to generate meaningful returns over the next 12 months without a re-rating. Valuation breakdown | Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a more favorable risk-reward setup. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterFor a compounding franchise like Nasdaq, price-to-target upside is less relevant than the durability of the underlying business; investors may accept modest near-term upside in exchange for long-duration quality exposure. | ||
Nasdaq operates with a wide economic moat, 35% net margins, a Rule of 40 score of 42, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, reflecting a durable franchise with pricing power across exchange listings, market data, and financial technology services.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Quality score remains above 7.0 and net margins hold above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterExchange businesses face structural fee compression from regulators and competition, and the moat may erode faster than expected if dark pool and alternative trading venue market share continues to grow.
Nasdaq has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters with a consistent 3-4% positive surprise each quarter, reflecting a business with predictable revenue streams and tight operational management.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarterly reports, maintaining the consistency of the beat track record.
CounterConsistent 3-4% beats may indicate that analysts have already adjusted their models to account for conservative guidance, and any reduction in trading volumes or data licensing renewals could break the streak.
Approximately 73% of revenue is tied to the Nasdaq-100 core indices, meaning a significant decline in index-linked assets under management, licensing fees, or ETF assets would disproportionately impact the company's top line.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Non-Nasdaq-100-index revenue streams grow faster than overall revenue and reduce the concentration to below 65% over 12 months.
CounterThe Nasdaq-100's global brand recognition and ETF ecosystem are extraordinarily entrenched — the concentration reflects a dominant position in a growing market rather than a vulnerability.
With only 5.3% upside implied to the analyst consensus price target, the stock is priced for perfection at current levels, meaning execution needs to be flawless to generate meaningful returns over the next 12 months without a re-rating.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets are revised upward by at least 10% within the next 12 months, reopening a more favorable risk-reward setup.
CounterFor a compounding franchise like Nasdaq, price-to-target upside is less relevant than the durability of the underlying business; investors may accept modest near-term upside in exchange for long-duration quality exposure.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.8 |
| ROA | 4.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.0 |
| FCF quality | 7.2 |
| Moat | 7.6 |
| Rule of 40 | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Rule of 40: 50 (pass)
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 8.3 |
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 6.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.1 |
| notable moves | 3.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $3,157,495 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.2 |
| quality rank | 4.7 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.1 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 7.7 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 6.4 |
- ▸Above max pain $60
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:91d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.12
Upside
-1.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -0.1=NEGATIVE outcome against Quality at 7.6 and asymmetric R:R of -0.12.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Growth at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Insider at 4.0, and Value at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.12 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Compounder Quality
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% or quality score drops below 6.5 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifThe company misses consensus EPS estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarterly reports.
- P3Nasdaq 100 Revenue Concentration
Trip ifIndex-linked revenue falls below 60% of total revenue as non-index segments decline, or Nasdaq-100 ETF assets under management decline more than 20% from current levels.
- P4Limited Near Term Upside To Target
Trip ifAnalyst price target consensus declines more than 10% or upside to target falls below 0% — meaning the stock trades above the analyst target.