Value
8.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 7.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| PEG | 8.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.82
- ▸Attractively valued
NBBK · Why this verdict
Why NB Bancorp (NBBK) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.5x with a PEG of 0.83, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-7.5% upside flag), suggesting the value case may already be priced in. | ||
NB Bancorp posted 36% YoY revenue growth and ranks as an industry growth leader among peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should remain in double digits, staying above peer averages, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSuch a high growth rate for a regional bank may reflect an unsustainable one-time factor (e.g., M&A or balance sheet expansion) rather than organic momentum. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $495,446 of stock (0.053% of market cap) with a bullish insider signal. Insider | Insider buying activity should continue or expand over the next 12 months, reinforcing management confidence. | →Stable |
| CounterA single modest insider purchase is not always a strong signal of conviction, especially at a small dollar amount relative to market cap. | ||
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters. Earnings | The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss (-29% surprise), which could mark the start of a reversal in the beat streak. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine flagging -7.5% upside remaining and a negative asymmetry ratio. Engine gate (failed) | Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive upside, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLimited upside to a stale target doesn't preclude the stock outperforming if growth continues to surprise and targets get revised higher. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.5x with a PEG of 0.83, screening as attractively valued relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward multiple should expand toward peer averages over the next 12 months.
CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target (-7.5% upside flag), suggesting the value case may already be priced in.
NB Bancorp posted 36% YoY revenue growth and ranks as an industry growth leader among peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should remain in double digits, staying above peer averages, over the next 12 months.
CounterSuch a high growth rate for a regional bank may reflect an unsustainable one-time factor (e.g., M&A or balance sheet expansion) rather than organic momentum.
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $495,446 of stock (0.053% of market cap) with a bullish insider signal.
→StableInsider
- Expectation
- Insider buying activity should continue or expand over the next 12 months, reinforcing management confidence.
CounterA single modest insider purchase is not always a strong signal of conviction, especially at a small dollar amount relative to market cap.
The bank has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of its last 4 reported quarters.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue with at least 3 of the next 4 quarters beating estimates.
CounterThe most recent quarter was a miss (-29% surprise), which could mark the start of a reversal in the beat streak.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, with the engine flagging -7.5% upside remaining and a negative asymmetry ratio.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised, restoring positive upside, over the next 12 months.
CounterLimited upside to a stale target doesn't preclude the stock outperforming if growth continues to surprise and targets get revised higher.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NB Bancorp combines industry-leading growth, a cheap forward multiple, and insider buying conviction with a solid earnings beat streak, though the stock has already run to its analyst price target, limiting near-term upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 23%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 4.1 |
- ▸Strong growth: 36% YoY
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
Insider
8.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $495,446 (0.054% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.6 |
| quality rank | 1.4 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 0.8 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 5.7 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High IV: 85%
- ▸Above max pain $15
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:15d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.83
Upside
-4.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 15d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Value at 8.4; weakest: Momentum at 3.7. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Insider at 8.2, and Technical at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Peer rank at 4.7, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.83 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth Leadership
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 15% YoY, reversing the current 36% pace.
- P2Cheap Forward Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 8.5x.
- P3Insider Buying Conviction
Trip ifInsiders become net sellers with total sell value more than $500,000 over 90 days.
- P4Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat rate falls below 50% over the next 4 reported quarters.
- P5Limited Upside At Target
Trip ifAnalyst-implied upside rises above 10% from the current -7.5%.