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MSEXMiddlesex Water CompanySell5.4·$58.26-0.85%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Middlesex Water shows strong positive momentum that has turned overbought, alongside a three-quarter earnings-miss streak and a negative cash-flow-quality flag despite an already-reached price target.

Thesis pillars

  • Overbought Positive MomentumDeteriorating
  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Analyst Target ReachedImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthModerate Confidence

Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Water

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and... Read more

$58.26-11.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#6 of 9 Utilities - Regulated Water
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield-2.58%
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 1.88%)Payout54.83%sustainable
Stop $55.56Target $67.00(default +15%)A.R:R -2.1:1
Analyst target$61.00+4.7%2 analysts
$67.00our TP
$58.26price
$61.00mean
$56
$67

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Oct 30, 202669d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.7
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA15.8
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth14.3%
Beta0.73
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV34%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
1.1
Surprise Avg
2.6
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
6.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R -2.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.19Resistance $59.77

Price Targets

$56
$67
A.Upside-11.0%
A.R:R-2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.0% upside)
! momentum at 4.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-30 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $58.26 — A.R:R is negative (-2.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $55.56. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MSEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $67.00 (-11.0% upside). Prior stop was $55.56. Stop-loss: $55.56.

What are the risks of investing in MSEX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MSEX overvalued or undervalued?

Middlesex Water Company trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSEX?

9 analysts cover MSEX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Middlesex Water Company do?The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its...

The terms "the Company," "we," "our," and "us" collectively refer to Middlesex Water Company (Middlesex) and its subsidiaries, including Tidewater Utilities, Inc. (Tidewater) and Tidewater's wholly-owned subsidiaries, Southern Shores Water Company, LLC (Southern Shores) and White Marsh Environmental Systems, Inc. (White Marsh).

Related stocks: YORW (The York Water Company) · CWT (California Water Service Group) · AWR (American States Water Company) · CWCO (Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.) · HTO (H2O America)
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