Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.9 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.15
- ▸Attractively valued
MLR · Why this verdict
Why Miller Industries (MLR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Miller Industries has beaten earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, converts profit to cash very well and trades at an attractive forward multiple, but the stock already sits above the analyst target, leaving no valuation cushion.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 65.8% beat in the latest quarter, indicating estimates are set too low. Earnings track record | Continued positive EPS surprises at the 4 November 2026 report and the following quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one miss was a 77.3% shortfall, and the huge average surprise comes from tiny EPS estimates of $0.02 to $0.03, so it overstates real earnings consistency. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 715% FCF to net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 of 9, pointing to sound underlying financial health. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should remain well above net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 715% ratio is inflated by very low net income; margins and returns on equity score near the bottom, so cash flow may reflect working-capital release rather than durable earnings power. | ||
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 18.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.15 that implies earnings growth outpaces the multiple. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 as the forward P/E holds below the mid-20s. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG of 0.15 depends on a sharp earnings rebound; if the rebound stalls, the forward P/E of 18.5x is not cheap for a small-cap cyclical. | ||
Price of $51.47 is 4.2% above the $49.30 analyst target, so the stock offers no upside to consensus and about 5.2% downside to the $49.00 stop. Upside pct | Analyst targets should be raised above the current price if earnings keep beating. | →Stable |
| CounterWith price already above the target and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.8, any earnings disappointment is not cushioned by valuation. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $240.0M for the period ended June 2026 is above the $214.0M of a year earlier, a recovery from the $171.9M December 2025 trough. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should keep rising toward the $246.2M next-quarter estimate and beyond. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterRevenue is still well below the $371.5M peak of mid-2024, so the recovery may only be a partial rebound in a cyclical business. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including a 65.8% beat in the latest quarter, indicating estimates are set too low.
↓DeterioratingEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Continued positive EPS surprises at the 4 November 2026 report and the following quarters.
CounterThe one miss was a 77.3% shortfall, and the huge average surprise comes from tiny EPS estimates of $0.02 to $0.03, so it overstates real earnings consistency.
Cash conversion is excellent at 715% FCF to net income and the Piotroski F-Score is a strong 8 of 9, pointing to sound underlying financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should remain well above net income over the next 12 months.
CounterA 715% ratio is inflated by very low net income; margins and returns on equity score near the bottom, so cash flow may reflect working-capital release rather than durable earnings power.
Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of 18.5x and a PEG ratio of 0.15 that implies earnings growth outpaces the multiple.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should keep the PEG below 1.0 as the forward P/E holds below the mid-20s.
CounterA PEG of 0.15 depends on a sharp earnings rebound; if the rebound stalls, the forward P/E of 18.5x is not cheap for a small-cap cyclical.
Price of $51.47 is 4.2% above the $49.30 analyst target, so the stock offers no upside to consensus and about 5.2% downside to the $49.00 stop.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets should be raised above the current price if earnings keep beating.
CounterWith price already above the target and a negative reward-to-risk of -0.8, any earnings disappointment is not cushioned by valuation.
Quarterly revenue of $240.0M for the period ended June 2026 is above the $214.0M of a year earlier, a recovery from the $171.9M December 2025 trough.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should keep rising toward the $246.2M next-quarter estimate and beyond.
CounterRevenue is still well below the $371.5M peak of mid-2024, so the recovery may only be a partial rebound in a cyclical business.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.1 |
| ROA | 1.5 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.8 |
| Net margin | 0.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 715% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.8 |
| OBV | 4.6 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
Insider
6.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.5 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.2 |
| quality rank | 3.3 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.9 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 7.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 6.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.6 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.94
Upside
-4.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.0<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.94 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.8, Value at 7.2, and Technical at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 4.0, Quality at 4.3, and Sentiment at 5.5. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.94 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income falls below 100% from the current 715%.
- P3Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 18.5x.
- P4Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifPrice falls below the $49.00 stop, a drop of more than 5.2% from $51.47.
- P5Revenue Recovery From Trough
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $180M from $240M in the latest quarter.