Value
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.9 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.3 |
| PEG | 4.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 24.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.91
MLM · Why this verdict
Why Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Martin Marietta pairs 21% year-over-year growth and high margins with a steady earnings-beat record, but weak cash conversion, a confirmed downtrend and only 12.2% upside to the analyst target keep the case balanced.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Price is below its 200-day average with a 3.4% per 30 days slope decline, yet rising on-balance volume indicates accumulation underway. Momentum breakdown | Price should reclaim its 200-day average within 12 months as accumulation persists. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA confirmed downtrend and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.60 suggest the market is hedging for further declines. | ||
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 2.1%, showing reliable execution against expectations. Earnings track record | Continued EPS beats around the 4 November 2026 report, keeping the average surprise positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss was a 7.2% shortfall, larger than any single beat except the most recent, so the small average surprise could mask volatile quarterly results. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $1.947B for the period ended June 2026 is up from $1.609B a year earlier, consistent with the noted 21% year-over-year growth. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing at double-digit rates year over year across the next four reported quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings growth component scores 0.0, so revenue gains may not be reaching profit, and the growth confidence is only 0.67. | ||
Margins are strong at 37% and peer comparison shows best-in-class margins, supporting pricing power in the business. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay near the current 37% level over the next 12 months. | Tripped→Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is only 24% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, so reported margins may not convert to cash. | ||
At $507.17 the stock sits 12.2% below the $569.21 analyst target, against 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.47. Upside pct | Price should move toward the $569.21 analyst target if the earnings and growth pillars hold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe analyst target has already been trimmed slightly and a 12.2% gap is modest relative to an 8.3% downside, leaving little margin for error. | ||
Price is below its 200-day average with a 3.4% per 30 days slope decline, yet rising on-balance volume indicates accumulation underway.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should reclaim its 200-day average within 12 months as accumulation persists.
CounterA confirmed downtrend and an elevated put/call ratio of 1.60 suggest the market is hedging for further declines.
The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of about 2.1%, showing reliable execution against expectations.
→StableEarnings track record
- Expectation
- Continued EPS beats around the 4 November 2026 report, keeping the average surprise positive over the next 12 months.
CounterThe one miss was a 7.2% shortfall, larger than any single beat except the most recent, so the small average surprise could mask volatile quarterly results.
Quarterly revenue of $1.947B for the period ended June 2026 is up from $1.609B a year earlier, consistent with the noted 21% year-over-year growth.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing at double-digit rates year over year across the next four reported quarters.
CounterEarnings growth component scores 0.0, so revenue gains may not be reaching profit, and the growth confidence is only 0.67.
Margins are strong at 37% and peer comparison shows best-in-class margins, supporting pricing power in the business.
Tripped→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay near the current 37% level over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is only 24% of net income, flagged as an earnings quality red flag, so reported margins may not convert to cash.
At $507.17 the stock sits 12.2% below the $569.21 analyst target, against 8.3% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 1.47.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $569.21 analyst target if the earnings and growth pillars hold.
CounterThe analyst target has already been trimmed slightly and a 12.2% gap is modest relative to an 8.3% downside, leaving little margin for error.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.0 |
| ROA | 3.0 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 8.1 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.2 |
| FCF quality | 1.9 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Strong margins: 37%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 24% FCF/NI
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 5.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
| erm sentiment | 6.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 7.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
2.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.0 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 4.4 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.5 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| put call | 3.6 |
| implied vol | 6.1 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.7 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 6.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.5 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.0>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.28
Upside
+11.3%
Downside
8.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.3<1.5@spot, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.28 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5, and Catalyst at 6.0; the weakest are Technical at 2.7, Growth at 3.9, and Quality at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.28 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Revenue Growth Momentum
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY from the current 21%.
- P3Best In Class MarginsTripped
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% from the current 37%.
- P4Limited Upside To Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls below the $483.47 stop level, widening downside to more than 12.2%.
- P5Downtrend With Accumulation
Trip ifPrice drops to below $483.47 while the put/call ratio rises above 2.0.