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MKTXMarketAxess Holdings, Inc.Hold6.5·$162.76+29.45%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

MarketAxess is a wide-moat capital markets franchise trading roughly 29% below the analyst consensus price target with a favorable risk/reward ratio of approximately 5.5-to-1; the primary risks are a confirmed price downtrend and negative free cash flow that raises questions about the quality of reported earnings.

Thesis pillars

  • Wide Moat Margins DurabilityStable
  • Discount To Analyst ConsensusDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat DisciplineImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. (MKTX) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)VALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Earnings in 7 days (2026-08-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

MarketAxess operates electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from transaction commissions, with U.S. high-grade bonds generating 37.8% of total... Read more

$162.76-17.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#16 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-5.68%
IncomeYield2.56%(5y avg 1.20%)Payout36.26%sustainable
Entry $144.10(50% gap fill)Stop $134.01Target $160.66(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$153.73-5.5%11 analysts
$160.66our TP
$162.76price
$153.73mean
$124
$250

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 92. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $162.76 has reached target $160.66. No upside to wait for. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Aug 7, 20267d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Overbought (RSI 92)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)14.4
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA9.8
Profit Mgn35.5%
ROE24.3%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.87
Dividend2.56%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.95neutral
IV35%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductU.S. high-grade corporate bonds38%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We currently derive approximately 37.8% of our revenues from secondary trading in U.S. high-grade corporate bonds.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-17Item 5.02LOW
    Board appointed Douglas Cifu to Compensation/Talent and Finance Committees, and Kenneth Schiciano to Audit Committee, effective May 1, 2026. Both previously elected as directors March 1, 2026. Routine committee assignments; no departures.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.2
Gap
3.0
52w Position
4.7
Extreme gap up (29.8%) - may pull back
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 8.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
92 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $111.90Resistance $163.94

Price Targets

$134
$144
$161
A.Upside-17.8%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKTX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $162.76, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 92. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $162.76 has reached target $160.66. No upside to wait for. Target $160.66 (-1.3%), stop $134.01 (−21.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $160.66 (-17.8% upside). Target $160.66 (-1.3%), stop $134.01 (−21.5%), A.R:R -1.2:1. Stop-loss: $134.01.

What are the risks of investing in MKTX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Overbought (RSI 92).

Is MKTX overvalued or undervalued?

MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 14.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MKTX?

20 analysts cover MKTX with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $154.

What does MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. do?MarketAxess operates electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and...

MarketAxess operates electronic fixed-income trading platforms serving approximately 2,100 institutional investor and broker-dealer clients across 90 countries. In 2025, 86.8% of revenues came from transaction commissions, with U.S. high-grade bonds generating 37.8% of total revenues. Open Trading generated an estimated $496.4 million in price improvement for clients in 2025.

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