Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
MHK · Why this verdict
Why Mohawk Industries (MHK) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mohawk Industries combines four consecutive earnings beats, an attractively priced forward multiple at 11.3x, and improving momentum signals — but with the stock essentially at near-term resistance with less than 2% headroom, the setup rewards current holders more than it justifies adding new capital.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and a forward P/E of 11.3x with a PEG of 0.17 offer a combination of earnings reliability and valuation support that is uncommon in cyclical consumer names. Catalyst track record | A fifth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 44 days would reinforce the earnings quality story and support a moderate multiple re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average earnings surprise of only 3.3% across four beats suggests modestly conservative guidance rather than strongly outperforming demand; with 14% short interest, any miss could trigger outsized downside. | ||
Free cash flow runs at 207% of net income and the balance sheet earns a financial-strength score of 8 of 9, indicating a business converting earnings to cash well above what the income statement alone implies. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above 150% of net income and the financial-strength score remains at 7 or above for the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterWithout a discernible competitive moat, the cash conversion advantage could erode if the cyclical recovery stalls, particularly given thin gross margins. | ||
Despite trading below the 200-day moving average on a negative trend slope, on-balance volume has been rising and MACD has been improving — signs that buyers are accumulating shares ahead of a potential price recovery. Momentum breakdown | The stock crosses above its 200-day moving average within the next 3 months, confirming the recovery phase. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA confirmed 30-day moving average slope of -2.5% describes a downtrend; volume accumulation can persist for extended periods before price follows, leaving holders exposed to further drawdown. | ||
The stock sits just below near-term resistance with approximately 2% headroom to the take-profit level, producing an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio that does not support initiating or adding to a position at this price. Price targets | If the fundamental and technical case strengthens, the stock breaks decisively above $113.71 and builds upside to a higher target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA recovery setup with improving MACD and a strong earnings history could generate enough momentum to push through current resistance and establish a higher trading range. | ||
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and a forward P/E of 11.3x with a PEG of 0.17 offer a combination of earnings reliability and valuation support that is uncommon in cyclical consumer names.
→StableCatalyst track record
- Expectation
- A fifth consecutive beat at the next earnings report in approximately 44 days would reinforce the earnings quality story and support a moderate multiple re-rating.
CounterAn average earnings surprise of only 3.3% across four beats suggests modestly conservative guidance rather than strongly outperforming demand; with 14% short interest, any miss could trigger outsized downside.
Free cash flow runs at 207% of net income and the balance sheet earns a financial-strength score of 8 of 9, indicating a business converting earnings to cash well above what the income statement alone implies.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above 150% of net income and the financial-strength score remains at 7 or above for the next four quarters.
CounterWithout a discernible competitive moat, the cash conversion advantage could erode if the cyclical recovery stalls, particularly given thin gross margins.
Despite trading below the 200-day moving average on a negative trend slope, on-balance volume has been rising and MACD has been improving — signs that buyers are accumulating shares ahead of a potential price recovery.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock crosses above its 200-day moving average within the next 3 months, confirming the recovery phase.
CounterA confirmed 30-day moving average slope of -2.5% describes a downtrend; volume accumulation can persist for extended periods before price follows, leaving holders exposed to further drawdown.
The stock sits just below near-term resistance with approximately 2% headroom to the take-profit level, producing an unfavorable reward-to-risk ratio that does not support initiating or adding to a position at this price.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- If the fundamental and technical case strengthens, the stock breaks decisively above $113.71 and builds upside to a higher target.
CounterA recovery setup with improving MACD and a strong earnings history could generate enough momentum to push through current resistance and establish a higher trading range.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 2.2 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 207% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
8.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 10.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
- ▸Volume surge (3.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.8 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.35 (n=2)
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $5,157,445 (0.075% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.3 |
| quality rank | 3.1 |
| growth rank | 5.4 |
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.2 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 6.7 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.5 |
| days to cover | 5.3 |
| volatility | 3.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 4.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 0 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L3:NEWS_BLOCK|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:8.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=8.8>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.91
Upside
-10.7%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
A recent news event triggered an L3 news-block on the verdict path. Trigger: Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. The 10-dimension scores remain Momentum at 8.8 (strongest), but ASYMMETRY:-0.9=NEGATIVE also fails — the news block is the proximate trigger, not the sole driver.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.8, Value at 7.8, and Growth at 7.2; the weakest are Technical at 3.4, Quality at 4.5, and Peer rank at 5.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.91 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak Valuation
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in the next reported quarter.
- P2Cash Conversion Financial Strength
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 100% of net income for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Recovery Momentum Emerging
Trip ifOn-balance volume reverses to a declining trend while the stock remains below its 200-day moving average for 8 consecutive weeks.
- P4Limited Upside At Resistance
Trip ifStock breaks above $113.71 and holds above that level for 3 consecutive weeks.