Value
8.9/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.1 |
| p ocf | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸P/OCF: 5.9x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)
- ▸Attractively valued
MFA · Why this verdict
Why MFA Financial (MFA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 0.7 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| Moat | 4.6 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 47%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -46%
Momentum
2.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 3.5 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
9.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.9 |
| support resistance | 9.8 |
| 52w position | 7.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.4 |
| days to cover | 8.7 |
| volatility | 8.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 5.0 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.40
- ▸High IV: 79%
- ▸Above max pain $6
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
- ▸Dividend: 1552.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $0.95B below $1B minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:8.1>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
8.14
Upside
+40.7%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.50>1.3, MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Technical at 9.1 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:2.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.1, Value at 8.9, and Sentiment at 5.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.0, Catalyst at 3.4, and Peer rank at 3.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 8.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.