Value
6.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
MCFT · Why this verdict
Why MasterCraft Boat Holdings (MCFT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MasterCraft is a fast-growing boat maker (63% YoY growth) with a strong earnings-beat record and a low forward P/E of 9.6x, but with weak quality, cash burn and sole-source engine supplier dependence. The price is 10.4% below the analyst target against 6.4% downside to the stop.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is exceptional at 63% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $129.9M in the June 2026 quarter, and the company is an industry growth leader. Growth breakdown | Revenue should keep growing above 25% YoY over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBoats are discretionary, high-ticket purchases, and growth this fast in a cyclical category can reverse sharply when consumer credit tightens. | ||
Quality is weak at 2.5 out of 10: free cash flow is -6% of revenue, there is no competitive moat, and margin scores are near zero. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive for quality to improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying fundamentals are improving, and cash burn may reflect inventory building for growth. | ||
The company relies on a sole-source engine supplier (Ilmor Engineering), which the data flags as a high-severity concentration risk. Bear case | The supplier dependence should persist, so any disruption would hit production directly. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA long-standing partnership with an engine specialist can be a competitive advantage and give priority supply. | ||
Execution has been strong: 3 beats and no misses in the last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 60%, and the last reported EPS of 0.45 beat the 0.35 estimate. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat estimates at the November 4 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe most recent quarter shows no reported actual, and beats against low estimates are a lower bar than beating expectations that have risen. | ||
Valuation is attractive on forward earnings: the forward P/E is 9.6x and the PEG ratio is 0.04, with the price 10.4% below the $21.75 analyst target. Valuation breakdown | The multiple should hold near current levels or expand as earnings growth is delivered, narrowing the gap to the target. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA very low forward P/E can mean the market expects peak earnings in a cyclical business, and EV/EBITDA scores only 0.4. | ||
Growth is exceptional at 63% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $129.9M in the June 2026 quarter, and the company is an industry growth leader.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should keep growing above 25% YoY over the next 12 months.
CounterBoats are discretionary, high-ticket purchases, and growth this fast in a cyclical category can reverse sharply when consumer credit tightens.
Quality is weak at 2.5 out of 10: free cash flow is -6% of revenue, there is no competitive moat, and margin scores are near zero.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive for quality to improve over the next 12 months.
CounterA Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 shows underlying fundamentals are improving, and cash burn may reflect inventory building for growth.
The company relies on a sole-source engine supplier (Ilmor Engineering), which the data flags as a high-severity concentration risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- The supplier dependence should persist, so any disruption would hit production directly.
CounterA long-standing partnership with an engine specialist can be a competitive advantage and give priority supply.
Execution has been strong: 3 beats and no misses in the last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 60%, and the last reported EPS of 0.45 beat the 0.35 estimate.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat estimates at the November 4 report.
CounterThe most recent quarter shows no reported actual, and beats against low estimates are a lower bar than beating expectations that have risen.
Valuation is attractive on forward earnings: the forward P/E is 9.6x and the PEG ratio is 0.04, with the price 10.4% below the $21.75 analyst target.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The multiple should hold near current levels or expand as earnings growth is delivered, narrowing the gap to the target.
CounterA very low forward P/E can mean the market expects peak earnings in a cyclical business, and EV/EBITDA scores only 0.4.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 1.2 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -6% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 63% YoY
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 9.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.1 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 24%
Insider
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 6.5 |
| insider conviction | 8.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider buying — $148,719 (0.030% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 2.0 |
| growth rank | 9.0 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 4.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 5.6 |
| volatility | 4.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.5 |
- ▸High IV: 72%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
1.23
Upside
+8.0%
Downside
6.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 11d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's 1.2<1.5@spot outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 1.23.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.0, and Value at 6.9; the weakest are Technical at 2.4, Quality at 2.5, and Peer rank at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.23 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Rapid Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 63%.
- P2Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Cheap Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E exceeds 16x from the current 9.6x without matching earnings growth.
- P4Weak Quality Cash Burn
Trip ifFree cash flow margin rises above 5% of revenue from the current -6%.
- P5Sole Source Engine Dependence
Trip ifThe number of high-severity concentration risks drops to 0 from the current 2.