Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.5 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
MCFT · Why this verdict
Why MasterCraft Boat Holdings (MCFT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company converts free cash flow at 188% of net income and shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, both signs of underlying financial health. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio should stay above 100%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe engine's overall quality score still sits at the 4.0 floor, indicating other quality dimensions offset the strong cash conversion. | ||
MasterCraft trades at a 12.0x forward P/E with an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.06, suggesting the market hasn't fully priced in its growth. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should stay low while the multiple expands or holds steady. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality score sits right at the engine's 4.0 floor, and the stock has already reached its analyst target, suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further re-rating. | ||
MasterCraft has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of its last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 76%. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterRecreational-boat demand is highly cyclical and sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, so a slowdown could quickly break the beat streak. | ||
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, and a bullish MACD reading. Chart pattern detection | Price should hold above its key moving averages, sustaining the breakout structure. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning the technical breakout is occurring even as fundamental modeled upside has largely been exhausted. | ||
The company converts free cash flow at 188% of net income and shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9, both signs of underlying financial health.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio should stay above 100%.
CounterThe engine's overall quality score still sits at the 4.0 floor, indicating other quality dimensions offset the strong cash conversion.
MasterCraft trades at a 12.0x forward P/E with an unusually low PEG ratio of 0.06, suggesting the market hasn't fully priced in its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should stay low while the multiple expands or holds steady.
CounterQuality score sits right at the engine's 4.0 floor, and the stock has already reached its analyst target, suggesting limited near-term catalysts for further re-rating.
MasterCraft has beaten EPS estimates in all 4 of its last reported quarters, with an average surprise of about 76%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterRecreational-boat demand is highly cyclical and sensitive to consumer discretionary spending, so a slowdown could quickly break the beat streak.
The stock has formed a bullish technical breakout, with a golden cross, price above all major moving averages, and a bullish MACD reading.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- Price should hold above its key moving averages, sustaining the breakout structure.
CounterThe asymmetry gate has failed, meaning the technical breakout is occurring even as fundamental modeled upside has largely been exhausted.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MasterCraft screens as unusually cheap on a growth-adjusted basis with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a bullish technical breakout, though quality sitting right at the engine's floor and a stock price already at its analyst target limit further upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 188% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 1.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 5.5 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 6.6 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 4.1 |
| volatility | 0.4 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.8 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
- ▸High IV: 91%
- ▸Above max pain $18
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:50d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
9.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.6B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Catalyst at 7.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.0, Value at 6.6, and Growth at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 3.0, Peer rank at 3.6, and Quality at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Growth Adjusted Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 0.5 from the current 0.06.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.
- P3Strong Cash Conversion
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio falls below 100%, reversing from the current 188%.
- P4Technical Breakout Setup
Trip ifPrice falls below its 200-day moving average, breaking the current bullish setup.