Value
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 0.0 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.8 |
| PEG | 7.4 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 62.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.93
MAMA · Why this verdict
Why Mama's Creations (MAMA) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Momentum is positive, with rising on-balance volume and price above its 200-day moving average, though RSI near 70 signals overbought conditions. Momentum breakdown | Momentum score should stay above the engine's 5.5 threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterAn overbought RSI reading raises the risk of a near-term pullback as the stock digests recent gains. | ||
Mama's Creations has beaten EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 144%, alongside 50% YoY revenue growth. Earnings | The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print. | →Stable |
| CounterOutsized average surprise figures on a small earnings base can be statistically noisy and may not repeat at scale. | ||
At a forward P/E of 62.3x, the stock is priced at a significant premium reflecting its growth story, leaving little room for a growth disappointment. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should compress, or growth should stay elevated enough to justify the current multiple. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG ratio near 0.93 suggests the premium multiple is still reasonably matched to the company's growth rate. | ||
The stock is trading close to its analyst price target, leaving only modest modeled upside against 7% downside. Warnings | Analyst price targets should be raised such that modeled upside expands past 15%. | →Stable |
| CounterConsistent EPS beats tend to precede target upgrades, so upside could reopen quickly following the next print. | ||
Momentum is positive, with rising on-balance volume and price above its 200-day moving average, though RSI near 70 signals overbought conditions.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum score should stay above the engine's 5.5 threshold.
CounterAn overbought RSI reading raises the risk of a near-term pullback as the stock digests recent gains.
Mama's Creations has beaten EPS estimates in all of its last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 144%, alongside 50% YoY revenue growth.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should continue at the next earnings print.
CounterOutsized average surprise figures on a small earnings base can be statistically noisy and may not repeat at scale.
At a forward P/E of 62.3x, the stock is priced at a significant premium reflecting its growth story, leaving little room for a growth disappointment.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should compress, or growth should stay elevated enough to justify the current multiple.
CounterA PEG ratio near 0.93 suggests the premium multiple is still reasonably matched to the company's growth rate.
The stock is trading close to its analyst price target, leaving only modest modeled upside against 7% downside.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Analyst price targets should be raised such that modeled upside expands past 15%.
CounterConsistent EPS beats tend to precede target upgrades, so upside could reopen quickly following the next print.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mama's Creations has posted a perfect 4-quarter EPS beat streak with 50% YoY growth and positive momentum, but a rich forward P/E and a stock price already near its analyst target limit the near-term reward relative to the risk.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.0 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 2.0 |
| Net margin | 1.6 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 6.3 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 50% YoY
Momentum
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 3.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 5.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 8.8 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $248,223 (0.028% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 3.0 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.1 |
| days to cover | 4.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 74%
- ▸Above max pain $5
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:69d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+2.8%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.6>=5.5. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Value at 3.8. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 6.6; the weakest are Value at 3.8, Technical at 4.8, and Quality at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) at the next earnings print.
- P2Positive Momentum Overbought
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5, reversing the current reading of 7.0.
- P3Rich Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 40x from the current 62.3x.
- P4Limited Upside Target Reached
Trip ifAnalyst 12-month upside rises above 15% from the current 2.5%.