Value
9.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.05
- ▸Attractively valued
MAGN · Why this verdict
Why Magnera (MAGN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Magnera trades at a forward P/E of just 7.5x with a PEG ratio of 0.05, an unusually cheap valuation relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E should stay below 10x while the stock re-rates higher toward peer multiples. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is declining 3% YoY, so the cheap multiple may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing. | ||
Magnera's revenue is declining 3% YoY, and the engine's quality score sits below its 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation. Growth breakdown | Revenue growth should turn positive and the quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap valuation on a growth-adjusted basis may already price in the current top-line weakness, limiting further downside. | ||
The stock has triggered a hard technical block via a death-cross pattern, with momentum reading 4.2, below the engine's 4.5 threshold. Engine gate (failed) | The death-cross technical block should clear and momentum should recover above the 4.5 threshold. | →Stable |
| CounterTechnical death crosses are lagging indicators and can occur near cyclical lows rather than signaling further declines. | ||
Magnera has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, with an average surprise of about -15%, indicating inconsistent execution. Earnings | EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company's small size may mean estimates are less well-covered and less accurate to begin with, amplifying noise in the surprise metric. | ||
Magnera trades at a forward P/E of just 7.5x with a PEG ratio of 0.05, an unusually cheap valuation relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E should stay below 10x while the stock re-rates higher toward peer multiples.
CounterRevenue is declining 3% YoY, so the cheap multiple may reflect deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing.
Magnera's revenue is declining 3% YoY, and the engine's quality score sits below its 4.0 minimum floor, triggering an exit recommendation.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue growth should turn positive and the quality score should climb back above the 4.0 floor.
CounterA cheap valuation on a growth-adjusted basis may already price in the current top-line weakness, limiting further downside.
The stock has triggered a hard technical block via a death-cross pattern, with momentum reading 4.2, below the engine's 4.5 threshold.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The death-cross technical block should clear and momentum should recover above the 4.5 threshold.
CounterTechnical death crosses are lagging indicators and can occur near cyclical lows rather than signaling further declines.
Magnera has missed EPS estimates in 2 of its last 3 reported quarters, with an average surprise of about -15%, indicating inconsistent execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise should turn positive for 2 consecutive quarters.
CounterThe company's small size may mean estimates are less well-covered and less accurate to begin with, amplifying noise in the surprise metric.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Magnera trades at a statistically cheap valuation (7.5x forward P/E), but declining revenue, a death-cross technical breakdown, and an inconsistent earnings record all support the engine's quality-floor exit signal.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
2.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 1.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.7 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| Moat | 2.5 |
| Piotroski F | 5.6 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
5.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.7 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.5 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 9.4 |
| quality rank | 2.6 |
| growth rank | 1.2 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.8 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 6.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 2.4 |
| volatility | 1.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| debt equity | 3.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.50
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Above max pain $2
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.07
Upside
-0.7%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.5 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.5, Momentum at 6.0, and Growth at 5.8; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 2.2, Quality at 2.4, and Catalyst at 2.8. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E falls below 5x from the current 7.5x.
- P2Revenue Decline Quality Floor
Trip ifRevenue growth rises above 0% YoY, reversing the current -3% decline.
- P3Death Cross Technical Breakdown
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5, clearing the current reading of 4.2.
- P4Earnings Inconsistency
Trip ifEPS surprise rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters, reversing the recent miss pattern.