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LRNStride, Inc.Sell5.4·$83.62-14.42%
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Stride, Inc. (LRN) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for learning kits; Weak growth.

Stride operates an online K-12 education platform serving students through public virtual and blended schools across 31 U.S. states for General Education and 27 states for Career Learning, alongside Adult Learning programs. Revenue is primarily derived from per-pupil government... Read more

$83.62+15.4% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#10 of 15 Education & Training Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.23%
Stop $81.00Target $96.47(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$113.50+35.7%2 analysts
$96.47our TP
$83.62price
$113.50mean
$125

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for learning kits; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 50d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202650d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for learning kits
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.3
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA7.4
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE20.1%
Rev Growth2.7%
Beta0.08
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.38bearish
IV77%elevated
Max Pain$210+151.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliersingle vendor for learning kits
    10-K Item 1A: 'Any failure by the single vendor we use to manage, receive, assemble and ship our learning kits and printed educational materials'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
3.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.8
Rsi
4.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.7%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (3.2x avg) on selloff

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.3
Value Rank
5.9
Quality Rank
6.6
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 50d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $83.51Resistance $103.67

Price Targets

$81
$96
A.Upside+15.4%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (50d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LRN stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $83.62 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for learning kits; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $81.00. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LRN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $96.47 (+15.4% upside). Prior stop was $81.00. Stop-loss: $81.00.

What are the risks of investing in LRN?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for learning kits; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is LRN overvalued or undervalued?

Stride, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LRN?

9 analysts cover LRN with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $114.

What does Stride, Inc. do?Stride operates an online K-12 education platform serving students through public virtual and blended schools across 31...

Stride operates an online K-12 education platform serving students through public virtual and blended schools across 31 U.S. states for General Education and 27 states for Career Learning, alongside Adult Learning programs. Revenue is primarily derived from per-pupil government funding paid to the schools it serves; approximately 8,600 employees support 89 General Education and 56 Career Learning schools.

Related stocks: TAL (TAL Education Group) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · LAUR (Laureate Education, Inc.) · PRDO (Perdoceo Education Corporation) · LOPE (Grand Canyon Education, Inc.)
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