Value
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.1x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
LQDA · Why this verdict
Why Liquidia (LQDA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.4 |
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 3.9 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 3.4 |
| Moat | 7.5 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 28%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 43% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 50%Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 8.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.9 |
| Price target | 6.0 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.70 (n=1)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
Insider
3.1/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 2.0 |
| insider conviction | 2.1 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Heavy insider selling — $69,234,827 (1.259% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 6.5 |
| growth rank | 10.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.1 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 8.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.9 |
| days to cover | 3.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 9.4 |
| debt equity | 3.6 |
- ▸High IV: 123%
- ▸Concentration risks: 4 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 8.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.1 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Estimates up 5.4% (30d)
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.70
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:66d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-7.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupUNKNOWN — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.47 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.6, Sentiment at 7.5, and Catalyst at 5.8; the weakest are Insider at 3.1, Peer rank at 4.1, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.