Value
5.1/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 6.7 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
LMND · Why this verdict
Why Lemonade (LMND) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 6.7 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 5.2 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸FCF-positive but moderate margins (FCF margin 11%, FCF yield 2.1%)
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 71% YoY
Momentum
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 5.2 |
| Volume | 2.2 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.2 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $466,534 (0.011% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 9.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.0 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.7 |
| days to cover | 4.5 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.2 |
| beta | 4.0 |
| debt equity | 8.5 |
- ▸High IV: 79%
Catalyst
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:51d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.47
Upside
-6.2%
Downside
13.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 53
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.81>1.3, MCap $4.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.6, and Momentum at 6.4; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Technical at 2.5, and Quality at 3.3. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.47 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.