Value
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 1.8 |
| P/S | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.6x
- ▸PEG: 0.03
- ▸Attractively valued
LFTO · Why this verdict
Why Liftoff Mobile (LFTO) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Liftoff Mobile is a high-quality, fast-growing mobile ad business (35% growth, Rule of 40 at 58, 430% FCF/net income) trading 44% below its high at a forward P/E of 12.0x, with 65.7% upside to the analyst target but weak price momentum.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 35% YoY, rising from $162.1M in June 2025 to $219.5M in June 2026, with the next quarter estimated at $221.5M. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $221.5M estimate and growth should stay above 25% YoY over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMobile ad spending is cyclical and sequential growth is slowing, with the next-quarter estimate only 1% above the latest quarter. | ||
Quality scores 7.6/10 with cash conversion of 430% of net income, a Rule of 40 score of 58, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should stay above net income and the Rule of 40 score should remain above 40 over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 430% FCF/NI ratio can reflect low reported net income from interest or one-time charges, not just strong operations, and net margin scores only 2.6/10. | ||
Forward P/E is 12.0x with a PEG of 0.03, and the $27.66 analyst target is 65.7% above the $16.69 price against 10.0% downside to the $14.76 stop. Analyst target | Price should move toward the $27.66 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith only one reported quarter, the earnings base used for PEG is unreliable, and a 44% drawdown suggests the market doubts the targets. | ||
Momentum scores 4.4/10 with falling OBV and a technical score of only 2.0/10, with price near the low end of its 52-week range. Momentum breakdown | Momentum should rise above 5.5 and price should clear resistance within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterSelling pressure shown by falling OBV and a position near 52-week lows may persist until results prove the growth is durable. | ||
The put/call ratio is 1.86 with implied volatility of 107%, signalling heavy hedging or bearish positioning. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio should fall below 1.0 as results confirm the growth story over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA high put/call ratio on a recently listed stock may reflect hedging by holders and not directional bets, and open interest data is not available. | ||
Revenue grew 35% YoY, rising from $162.1M in June 2025 to $219.5M in June 2026, with the next quarter estimated at $221.5M.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $221.5M estimate and growth should stay above 25% YoY over 12 months.
CounterMobile ad spending is cyclical and sequential growth is slowing, with the next-quarter estimate only 1% above the latest quarter.
Quality scores 7.6/10 with cash conversion of 430% of net income, a Rule of 40 score of 58, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should stay above net income and the Rule of 40 score should remain above 40 over 12 months.
CounterA 430% FCF/NI ratio can reflect low reported net income from interest or one-time charges, not just strong operations, and net margin scores only 2.6/10.
Forward P/E is 12.0x with a PEG of 0.03, and the $27.66 analyst target is 65.7% above the $16.69 price against 10.0% downside to the $14.76 stop.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $27.66 analyst target as earnings are delivered over the next 12 months.
CounterWith only one reported quarter, the earnings base used for PEG is unreliable, and a 44% drawdown suggests the market doubts the targets.
Momentum scores 4.4/10 with falling OBV and a technical score of only 2.0/10, with price near the low end of its 52-week range.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Momentum should rise above 5.5 and price should clear resistance within 12 months.
CounterSelling pressure shown by falling OBV and a position near 52-week lows may persist until results prove the growth is durable.
The put/call ratio is 1.86 with implied volatility of 107%, signalling heavy hedging or bearish positioning.
↑ImprovingRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio should fall below 1.0 as results confirm the growth story over the next 12 months.
CounterA high put/call ratio on a recently listed stock may reflect hedging by holders and not directional bets, and open interest data is not available.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 6.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 5.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 430% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 58 (pass)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
- ▸High-quality business
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 35% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.9 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.5 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
Sentiment
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.4 |
| Analyst rating | 7.3 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 89%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 3.8 |
| growth rank | 6.2 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.8 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 7.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
- ▸High IV: 95%
- ▸Above max pain $2
Catalyst
8.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 8.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.03, quality 7.6/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:CANDIDATE_HELDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:6.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
6.58
Upside
+70.1%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupRange Bound — RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -48% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 7.6 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 6.58 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 8.0, and Value at 7.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 6.58 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 25% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifRule of 40 score falls below 40 from the current 58.
- P3Cheap Valuation Large Target Gap
Trip ifShare price falls below the $14.76 stop-loss level.
- P4Weak Momentum Falling Volume
Trip ifMomentum score stays below 4.0 for 3 consecutive months.
- P5Bearish Options Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 2.5 from the current 1.86.