Value
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 8.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
LCLN · Why this verdict
Why Lincoln International (LCLN) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Lincoln International is a high-growth capital markets advisory firm with 51% growth, solid margins and an 8/9 Piotroski score, but the shares sit at the $23.55 analyst target, so the case rests on continued earnings upgrades.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 6.6/10 with 18% margins, a 8/9 Piotroski F-Score and a moat component of 7.2, ranking in the upper half of peers. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or higher over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOperating margin scores 0.0/10, so the headline margin may include items that do not reflect core operations. | ||
Revenue grew 51% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $225.7M in June 2026 versus $149.7M a year earlier, and the next quarter estimated at $255.5M. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $255.5M estimate and growth should stay above 20% YoY over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAdvisory revenue is cyclical and tied to deal volumes, and the revenue series mixes sources (XBRL and provisional data), so comparisons are rough. | ||
At $23.52 the shares are only 0.1% below the $23.55 analyst target, against 7.6% downside to the $21.93 stop, so the reward-to-risk is near zero. Analyst target | Earnings growth should lift analyst targets above $26 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light (7.0), and a 51% growth rate could drive targets sharply higher after the next report. | ||
The only reported quarter on record beat estimates, with EPS of $0.26 against $0.13, and the next report is due in 12 days. Last 4 quarters | EPS should beat estimates again in the November 2026 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA single data point is not a pattern, and the company has a short public reporting history. | ||
Momentum scores 4.6/10 with rising OBV but a mid-range RSI of 45, indicating a range-bound chart without a clear trend. Momentum breakdown | Price should break above resistance with RSI above 55 within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMoving average position scores only 2.5/10, so the shares may stay below key averages while volume accumulation fades. | ||
Quality is 6.6/10 with 18% margins, a 8/9 Piotroski F-Score and a moat component of 7.2, ranking in the upper half of peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 15% and the Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or higher over 12 months.
CounterOperating margin scores 0.0/10, so the headline margin may include items that do not reflect core operations.
Revenue grew 51% YoY, with quarterly revenue of $225.7M in June 2026 versus $149.7M a year earlier, and the next quarter estimated at $255.5M.
↓DeterioratingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $255.5M estimate and growth should stay above 20% YoY over 12 months.
CounterAdvisory revenue is cyclical and tied to deal volumes, and the revenue series mixes sources (XBRL and provisional data), so comparisons are rough.
At $23.52 the shares are only 0.1% below the $23.55 analyst target, against 7.6% downside to the $21.93 stop, so the reward-to-risk is near zero.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Earnings growth should lift analyst targets above $26 over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light (7.0), and a 51% growth rate could drive targets sharply higher after the next report.
The only reported quarter on record beat estimates, with EPS of $0.26 against $0.13, and the next report is due in 12 days.
↓DeterioratingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should beat estimates again in the November 2026 report.
CounterA single data point is not a pattern, and the company has a short public reporting history.
Momentum scores 4.6/10 with rising OBV but a mid-range RSI of 45, indicating a range-bound chart without a clear trend.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should break above resistance with RSI above 55 within 12 months.
CounterMoving average position scores only 2.5/10, so the shares may stay below key averages while volume accumulation fades.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 86%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 8.9 |
| Current ratio | 4.5 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 51% YoY
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 5.5 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 7.5 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 7.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| debt equity | 7.7 |
Catalyst
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 6 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.4=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.38
Upside
-2.7%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.5B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 7.8, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Technical at 5.0, and Sentiment at 5.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.38 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2High Quality Margins
Trip ifNet margin falls below 10% from the current 18%.
- P3Price At Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price falls below the $21.93 stop-loss level.
- P4Earnings Beat Limited History
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Range Bound Momentum
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.6.