Value
8.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.3 |
| P/S | 9.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.11
- ▸Attractively valued
LAZ · Why this verdict
Why Lazard (LAZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Lazard combines a wide economic moat, a return on equity of 34%, and a compelling valuation at 10x forward earnings with a PEG of 0.16, but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—death cross, below all moving averages—and the dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe, making the near-term risk/reward unfavorable despite the underlying quality.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock screens as attractively valued both in absolute terms and relative to its growth trajectory, with an analyst consensus target implying modest remaining upside to the $45.24 take-profit level. Value | Over 12 months, earnings grow in line with current estimates, the forward multiple remains below 15x as earnings expand, and the stock moves above the $45.24 take-profit level as the technical headwinds resolve. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterOnly 2.7% upside remains to the take-profit level, meaning the valuation discount is largely priced in at current levels—unless the stock pulls back meaningfully to open a wider entry margin, the attractive valuation alone does not create an actionable setup. | ||
The business earns a return on equity of 34%, carries a wide economic moat designation, a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, and scores as a compounder-quality franchise—a quality profile that has historically supported premium valuation through cycles. Quality | Over 12 months, return on equity holds at or above 25% and the financial-health score remains at 7 or higher, confirming the moat is generating durable returns regardless of the technical environment. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 17%, breaking a three-quarter beat streak, which may signal that the quality base is being pressured by cyclical capital-markets revenue headwinds—the moat may not insulate earnings in a prolonged deal-making slowdown. | ||
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—trading below all moving averages with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, an RSI of 38, and the 200-day moving average declining at 1.7% per 30-day period—a pattern that has historically preceded extended weakness in financial-services stocks. Momentum | Over 12 months, the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day, the stock holds above both averages for 2 consecutive months, and momentum rises above 5.0—signaling a genuine trend reversal. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOn-balance volume is rising despite the price weakness, indicating buyers are accumulating on dips; if volume-driven buying continues to exceed selling pressure, the moving-average picture could repair faster than the price action alone suggests. | ||
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a high nominal yield that may not be sustainably covered by current earnings power—which adds a payout-cut risk that could pressure the stock independent of the underlying business quality. Catalyst | Over 12 months, earnings per share covers the dividend payment with a payout ratio below 70% for at least 2 consecutive quarters, removing the yield-trap concern. | →Stable |
| CounterThree of the last four quarters were beats before the recent miss, and if the most recent shortfall is idiosyncratic rather than structural, the underlying earnings capacity may be sufficient to sustain the dividend at the current rate. | ||
At a forward price-to-earnings of 10.0x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, the stock screens as attractively valued both in absolute terms and relative to its growth trajectory, with an analyst consensus target implying modest remaining upside to the $45.24 take-profit level.
Tripped↑ImprovingValue
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, earnings grow in line with current estimates, the forward multiple remains below 15x as earnings expand, and the stock moves above the $45.24 take-profit level as the technical headwinds resolve.
CounterOnly 2.7% upside remains to the take-profit level, meaning the valuation discount is largely priced in at current levels—unless the stock pulls back meaningfully to open a wider entry margin, the attractive valuation alone does not create an actionable setup.
The business earns a return on equity of 34%, carries a wide economic moat designation, a financial-health score of 8 out of 9, and scores as a compounder-quality franchise—a quality profile that has historically supported premium valuation through cycles.
→StableQuality
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, return on equity holds at or above 25% and the financial-health score remains at 7 or higher, confirming the moat is generating durable returns regardless of the technical environment.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced an earnings miss of 17%, breaking a three-quarter beat streak, which may signal that the quality base is being pressured by cyclical capital-markets revenue headwinds—the moat may not insulate earnings in a prolonged deal-making slowdown.
The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend—trading below all moving averages with the 50-day crossing below the 200-day, an RSI of 38, and the 200-day moving average declining at 1.7% per 30-day period—a pattern that has historically preceded extended weakness in financial-services stocks.
↓DeterioratingMomentum
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, the 50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day, the stock holds above both averages for 2 consecutive months, and momentum rises above 5.0—signaling a genuine trend reversal.
CounterOn-balance volume is rising despite the price weakness, indicating buyers are accumulating on dips; if volume-driven buying continues to exceed selling pressure, the moving-average picture could repair faster than the price action alone suggests.
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a high nominal yield that may not be sustainably covered by current earnings power—which adds a payout-cut risk that could pressure the stock independent of the underlying business quality.
→StableCatalyst
- Expectation
- Over 12 months, earnings per share covers the dividend payment with a payout ratio below 70% for at least 2 consecutive quarters, removing the yield-trap concern.
CounterThree of the last four quarters were beats before the recent miss, and if the most recent shortfall is idiosyncratic rather than structural, the underlying earnings capacity may be sufficient to sustain the dividend at the current rate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.6 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 1.9 |
| Net margin | 3.5 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 7.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $5,440,038 (0.136% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.6 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.6 |
| 52w position | 4.3 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 3.5 |
| volatility | 2.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.5 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 2.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.60
- ▸High IV: 65%
Catalyst
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 2.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 4.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:RISK_FLOORPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:39d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.0<1.5@spot
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.03
Upside
+0.3%
Downside
8.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.42>1.3, MCap $4.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 1.5<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.03.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Technical at 7.2, and Quality at 6.3; the weakest are Momentum at 1.5, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.9, and Catalyst at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.03 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Strong Quality Base
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Confirmed Technical Downtrend
Trip if50-day moving average crosses back above the 200-day moving average and holds for 2 consecutive months.
- P3Attractive Valuation Forward Pe 10xTripped
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a corresponding increase in earnings estimates.
- P4Dividend Yield May Be Uncovered
Trip ifDividend payout ratio falls below 70% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating the yield is comfortably covered.