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KWRQuaker HoughtonHold5.8·$163.02-1.10%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Strong cash conversion — free cash flow at roughly 10 times net income and a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 — and healthy price momentum mask extreme risk conditions: a put-to-call ratio of 8.00, 16% short interest, and a stock price $42 above the options market's max pain level of $105; with only 0.3% upside to the analyst consensus target and a recent pattern of earnings underdelivery, the risk profile has breached the minimum acceptable threshold and warrants an exit.

Thesis pillars

  • Extreme Risk Options Short PositioningStable
  • Target Reached No Upside HeadroomImproving
  • Earnings Delivery DeterioratingStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Quaker Houghton (KWR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids, and surface solutions — sold to steel, aluminum, automotive, and aerospace manufacturers in over 25 countries across three segments. Non-US subsidiaries... Read more

$163.02+1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#13 of 43 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.63%
IncomeYield1.30%(5y avg 1.09%)Payout36.00%sustainable
Stop $151.61Target $165.05(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$189.71+16.4%7 analysts
$165.05our TP
$163.02price
$189.71mean
$200

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-23
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202668d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.9
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$2.8B
EV/EBITDA12.5
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE7.2%
Rev Growth10.2%
Beta1.39
Dividend1.30%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C7.00bearish
IV40%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. subsidiaries
    10-K Item 1A: 'sales by our non-U.S. subsidiaries accounted for approximately 63% to 67% of our consolidated net sales'
  • LOWProductmetal removal fluids19%
    10-K Item 1: 'Metal removal fluids ... 19.0'
  • LOWProductrolling lubricants18%
    10-K Item 1: 'Rolling lubricants ... 18.3'
  • LOWProducthydraulic fluids12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Hydraulic fluids ... 12.2'
  • LOWProductsurface solutions11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Surface solutions ... 10.9'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    SVP/Chief Global Operations Officer Jeffrey Fleck departed March 9, 2026 via involuntary termination without cause. No successor named. No disagreement with the Company cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-05-15Item 5.02LOW
    Board Chairman Michael F. Barry retired May 13, 2026 after serving since 2008. Mark A. Douglas appointed new Chairman. Board reduced from 11 to 10 directors. Lead Director role eliminated. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.2
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 68d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $146.46Resistance $175.14

Price Targets

$152
$165
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.2% upside)
! momentum at 2.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.1 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (68d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is KWR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $163.02, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $165.05 (+1.2%), stop $151.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the KWR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $165.05 (+1.2% upside). Target $165.05 (+1.2%), stop $151.61 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $151.61.

What are the risks of investing in KWR?

Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. subsidiaries; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is KWR overvalued or undervalued?

Quaker Houghton trades at a P/E of 28.9 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about KWR?

11 analysts cover KWR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $190.

What does Quaker Houghton do?Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids,...

Quaker Houghton formulates specialty industrial process fluids — metal removal, rolling lubricants, hydraulic fluids, and surface solutions — sold to steel, aluminum, automotive, and aerospace manufacturers in over 25 countries across three segments. Non-US subsidiaries generated 63% to 67% of consolidated net sales over the past three years, employing approximately 4,700 people globally.

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