Value
5.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 9.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 135.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.56
KRUS · Why this verdict
Why Kura Sushi USA (KRUS) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kura Sushi USA is a fast-growing restaurant chain whose revenue reached $85.9M in the May 2026 quarter and which has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of 4 quarters, but it burns cash, carries 27% short interest and sits in a confirmed downtrend 61% below its high.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quarterly revenue rose to $85.9M in May 2026 from $74.0M a year earlier, with the next quarter estimated at $91.3M, ranking the company an industry growth leader. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $91.3M estimate and keep growing above 10% YoY over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterGrowth comes from opening new restaurants funded with cash and debt, and it has not yet translated to positive operating margin. | ||
Free cash flow is negative at -10% of revenue, margins and returns are all zero, and debt-to-equity is 2.1, which drives a quality score of only 1.5/10. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow margin should move above -5% and quality should rise above 4.0 within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterExpansion capex depresses free cash flow by design, and mature restaurants may be profitable even as the consolidated figures look weak. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.03 against a $0.01 loss estimate in July 2026, though the January 2026 quarter was a miss at -$0.23. Last 4 quarters | EPS should stay positive and exceed estimates in the November 2026 report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBeats come from low or negative estimates on tiny EPS values, and a single weak quarter can reverse the trend. | ||
Momentum is 1.9/10 with price below the 200-day average falling 4.0% per 30 days, RSI at 18 and short interest of 27%. Momentum breakdown | RSI should recover above 40 and short interest should fall below 20% within 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 18 is deeply oversold, and high short interest can fuel a sharp rebound if results surprise to the upside. | ||
The $57.20 analyst target is 81.9% above the $31.44 price versus 11.3% downside to the $30.46 stop, but coverage is light. Analyst target | Price should move toward the $57.20 target as earnings turn positive over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterLight coverage dampens the target signal, and the stock is 61% below its high, which suggests the targets may be stale. | ||
Quarterly revenue rose to $85.9M in May 2026 from $74.0M a year earlier, with the next quarter estimated at $91.3M, ranking the company an industry growth leader.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $91.3M estimate and keep growing above 10% YoY over 12 months.
CounterGrowth comes from opening new restaurants funded with cash and debt, and it has not yet translated to positive operating margin.
Free cash flow is negative at -10% of revenue, margins and returns are all zero, and debt-to-equity is 2.1, which drives a quality score of only 1.5/10.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow margin should move above -5% and quality should rise above 4.0 within 12 months.
CounterExpansion capex depresses free cash flow by design, and mature restaurants may be profitable even as the consolidated figures look weak.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, including $0.03 against a $0.01 loss estimate in July 2026, though the January 2026 quarter was a miss at -$0.23.
↑ImprovingLast 4 quarters
- Expectation
- EPS should stay positive and exceed estimates in the November 2026 report.
CounterBeats come from low or negative estimates on tiny EPS values, and a single weak quarter can reverse the trend.
Momentum is 1.9/10 with price below the 200-day average falling 4.0% per 30 days, RSI at 18 and short interest of 27%.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI should recover above 40 and short interest should fall below 20% within 12 months.
CounterRSI of 18 is deeply oversold, and high short interest can fuel a sharp rebound if results surprise to the upside.
The $57.20 analyst target is 81.9% above the $31.44 price versus 11.3% downside to the $30.46 stop, but coverage is light.
→StableAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Price should move toward the $57.20 target as earnings turn positive over the next 12 months.
CounterLight coverage dampens the target signal, and the stock is 61% below its high, which suggests the targets may be stale.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -10% of revenue
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Quality concerns
Growth
8.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.9%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news sentiment | 0.0 |
| Analyst rating | 6.8 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
- ▸Negative news sentiment (-1.00)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (8.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 86%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 1.2 |
| growth rank | 8.7 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.4 |
| support resistance | 6.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 1.0 |
| days to cover | 3.8 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.8 |
| debt equity | 5.6 |
- ▸High short interest justified: 25%
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Market cap $398M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:MARKET_CAPPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
5.21
Upside
+62.2%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -58% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The HOLD_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.8<4.5 outcome against Growth at 8.3 and asymmetric R:R of 5.21.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 8.3, Insider at 7.3, and Catalyst at 6.5; the weakest are Quality at 1.5, Momentum at 2.8, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Cash Burn And Leverage
Trip ifFree cash flow margin falls below -15% of revenue from the current -10%.
- P3Earnings Beat Recovery
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Confirmed Downtrend Short Interest
Trip ifShare price falls below the $30.46 stop-loss level.
- P5Wide Analyst Target Gap
Trip ifAnalyst target drops below $40 from the current $57.20.