Value
4.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 1.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 53.7x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
KRMN · Why this verdict
Why Karman Holdings (KRMN) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 6.2 |
| Net margin | 2.9 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 5.6 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -134% FCF/NI
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 51% YoY
Momentum
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (10.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 113%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.8 |
| quality rank | 4.0 |
| growth rank | 8.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 9.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.2 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 5.6 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| debt equity | 2.9 |
- ▸High IV: 96%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:5.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:59d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
5.67
Upside
+85.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 10.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.4<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 5.67 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Sentiment at 7.4; the weakest are Momentum at 1.4, Peer rank at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 5.67 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.