Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.9 |
| PEG | 8.7 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.72
- ▸Attractively valued
KMDA · Why this verdict
Why Kamada (KMDA) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 6.83, with modeled upside of 47.3% against downside of 6.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold. Reward-to-risk math | The asymmetry ratio should stay above 4.0 and modeled upside should remain above 30% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA large modeled upside built on an analyst target can compress quickly if the two-quarter earnings miss streak continues and the target is revised down. | ||
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses in the last 2 quarters alongside weak growth, both flagged as concerns. Bear case | The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss streak is set to reverse. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent miss (-39.13% surprise) followed a smaller miss and an in-line quarter, suggesting deteriorating estimate accuracy that could persist rather than reverse quickly. | ||
The analysis applies a leverage penalty of -1.5 points for a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.5. Bear case | Debt-to-equity should decline toward 3.0 or below over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterA current ratio of 9.7 indicates strong short-term liquidity, suggesting the leverage may be structured with manageable near-term maturities rather than posing an immediate solvency risk. | ||
The company shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8 (7/9), though the same data flags an earnings-quality warning of only 54% free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and FCF/NI conversion should rise above 70% over the next 12 months if underlying quality is improving. | →Stable |
| CounterThe earnings-quality warning on cash conversion suggests reported earnings may be overstating the cash-generating ability implied by the strong Piotroski score. | ||
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.2x with a PEG of 0.73, described in the data as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months if the value discount thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA cheap multiple alongside weak growth and consecutive earnings misses may reflect deserved skepticism about near-term earnings power rather than a mispricing opportunity. | ||
The V9 expert panel shows an asymmetry ratio of 6.83, with modeled upside of 47.3% against downside of 6.9%, comfortably clearing the 1.5 gate threshold.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should stay above 4.0 and modeled upside should remain above 30% over the next 12 months if the favorable risk/reward holds.
CounterA large modeled upside built on an analyst target can compress quickly if the two-quarter earnings miss streak continues and the target is revised down.
The company has posted consecutive earnings misses in the last 2 quarters alongside weak growth, both flagged as concerns.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The company should return to at least an in-line or beat result over the next two reported quarters if the miss streak is set to reverse.
CounterThe most recent miss (-39.13% surprise) followed a smaller miss and an in-line quarter, suggesting deteriorating estimate accuracy that could persist rather than reverse quickly.
The analysis applies a leverage penalty of -1.5 points for a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.5.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity should decline toward 3.0 or below over the next 12 months for the leverage penalty to ease.
CounterA current ratio of 9.7 indicates strong short-term liquidity, suggesting the leverage may be structured with manageable near-term maturities rather than posing an immediate solvency risk.
The company shows a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7.8 (7/9), though the same data flags an earnings-quality warning of only 54% free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score should stay at 7 or higher and FCF/NI conversion should rise above 70% over the next 12 months if underlying quality is improving.
CounterThe earnings-quality warning on cash conversion suggests reported earnings may be overstating the cash-generating ability implied by the strong Piotroski score.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 12.2x with a PEG of 0.73, described in the data as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should stay below 15x and PEG should remain near or below 1.0 over the next 12 months if the value discount thesis holds.
CounterA cheap multiple alongside weak growth and consecutive earnings misses may reflect deserved skepticism about near-term earnings power rather than a mispricing opportunity.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kamada screens as attractively valued with a favorable modeled asymmetry of 47.3% upside versus 6.9% downside, but the analysis flags two consecutive earnings misses, weak growth, and a leverage penalty for its 4.5x debt-to-equity ratio, prompting a note to consider reducing the position despite a strong underlying Piotroski F-Score.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.7 |
| ROA | 2.8 |
| Gross margin | 4.2 |
| Op margin | 6.1 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 9.7 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 6.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 54% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
2.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.2 |
| EPS growth | 2.0 |
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.9%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 79%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.8 |
| quality rank | 6.2 |
| growth rank | 3.7 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.9 |
| support resistance | 5.9 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.8 |
| days to cover | 8.5 |
| volatility | 6.9 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.8 |
Catalyst
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 3.3%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:10.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:35d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
10.36
Upside
+51.8%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: ASYMMETRY:10.4>=1.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0; weakest: Growth at 2.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 9.0, Value at 8.1, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Growth at 2.6, Momentum at 3.0, and Catalyst at 3.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 10.36 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Asymmetric Risk Reward
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below 3.0, down from the current 6.83.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings surprise stays below 0% for a 3rd consecutive quarter, extending the current miss streak.
- P3Leverage Penalty Risk
Trip ifDebt-to-equity ratio rises above 6.0, worse than the current 4.5x driving the leverage penalty.
- P4Strong Piotroski Quality
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 out of 9, down from the current 7.8.
- P5Cheap Valuation Multiple
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x, up from the current 12.2x.