Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.9 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 1.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.2x
- ▸PEG: 6.62
KFRC · Why this verdict
Why Kforce (KFRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, implying -29.3% of downside versus the modeled fair value, and sits near its 52-week high. Warnings | The analyst target should be revised upward, or the stock should pull back toward fair value, over the next 12 months if the overvaluation gap is to close constructively. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst price targets lag fast-moving fundamentals, and continued earnings strength could justify a higher fair-value estimate before the stock needs to correct. | ||
The company shows an excellent 27% return on equity, 167% free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Return on equity should stay above 20% and Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or higher over the next 12 months if the quality thesis holds. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh ROE in a staffing business can be flattered by low reinvestment needs and buybacks rather than reflecting a durable competitive moat, which the data separately flags as absent. | ||
The V9 expert panel flagged a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.06, meaning downside outweighs upside, driving an avoid position-sizing recommendation. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid. | →Stable |
| CounterA negative asymmetry reading driven mainly by the stock trading through its price target can normalize quickly if the target is raised on continued earnings strength. | ||
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 54 and bullish MACD. Chart pattern detection | The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA breakout that has already carried the stock through its analyst target and near its 52-week high may have limited room left to run before mean-reverting. | ||
The dividend payout ratio stands at 310% of earnings, a level flagged in the catalyst data. Catalyst breakdown | The dividend payout ratio should fall back below 200% of earnings over the next 12 months if the payout is sustainable. | →Stable |
| CounterA payout ratio this far above reported earnings can persist if supported by the company's strong free cash flow conversion rather than net income alone. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, implying -29.3% of downside versus the modeled fair value, and sits near its 52-week high.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The analyst target should be revised upward, or the stock should pull back toward fair value, over the next 12 months if the overvaluation gap is to close constructively.
CounterAnalyst price targets lag fast-moving fundamentals, and continued earnings strength could justify a higher fair-value estimate before the stock needs to correct.
The company shows an excellent 27% return on equity, 167% free-cash-flow-to-net-income conversion, and a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity should stay above 20% and Piotroski F-Score should remain at 7 or higher over the next 12 months if the quality thesis holds.
CounterHigh ROE in a staffing business can be flattered by low reinvestment needs and buybacks rather than reflecting a durable competitive moat, which the data separately flags as absent.
The V9 expert panel flagged a negative asymmetry ratio of -2.06, meaning downside outweighs upside, driving an avoid position-sizing recommendation.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should turn positive, rising above 1.0, over the next 12 months for position sizing to move off avoid.
CounterA negative asymmetry reading driven mainly by the stock trading through its price target can normalize quickly if the target is raised on continued earnings strength.
The stock is in a golden-cross breakout, trading above all major moving averages with an RSI of 54 and bullish MACD.
→StableChart pattern detection
- Expectation
- The stock should remain above its key moving averages and RSI should stay above 50 over the next 12 months if the breakout setup holds.
CounterA breakout that has already carried the stock through its analyst target and near its 52-week high may have limited room left to run before mean-reverting.
The dividend payout ratio stands at 310% of earnings, a level flagged in the catalyst data.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The dividend payout ratio should fall back below 200% of earnings over the next 12 months if the payout is sustainable.
CounterA payout ratio this far above reported earnings can persist if supported by the company's strong free cash flow conversion rather than net income alone.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Kforce shows excellent underlying quality with a 27% return on equity and strong cash conversion, and a technical breakout with a golden cross, but the stock has already reached its analyst price target with an implied -29.3% downside to fair value and a negative asymmetry gate, leaving guidance to consider reducing the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 9.0 |
| ROA | 5.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.5 |
| Op margin | 1.5 |
| Net margin | 1.3 |
| Current ratio | 6.4 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 27%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 167% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 2.5 |
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 2.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.1 |
| quality rank | 7.2 |
| growth rank | 4.4 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.8 |
| support resistance | 1.9 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 2.0 |
| volatility | 1.9 |
| put call | 9.3 |
| implied vol | 1.4 |
| beta | 7.7 |
| debt equity | 5.5 |
- ▸High IV: 71%
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.4 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:27d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-2.13
Upside
-32.0%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Insider at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-2.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -2.13 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Insider at 7.5, Momentum at 7.4, and Quality at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Peer rank at 3.5, and Technical at 4.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -2.13 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Target Reached Limited Upside
Trip ifPrice rises more than 10% above the current level without an upward analyst target revision, widening the -29.3% overvaluation gap.
- P2Excellent Roe Cash Quality
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 27%.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Gate
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio falls below -3.0, worse than the current -2.06.
- P4Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifRSI falls below 45 from the current 54, breaking the breakout setup.
- P5Rich Dividend Payout
Trip ifDividend payout ratio exceeds 400% of earnings, up from the current 310%.