Value
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.9 |
| PEG | 1.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.3x
- ▸PEG: 7.40
KFRC · Why this verdict
Why Kforce (KFRC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality is 5.1/10 with a 28% ROE but no competitive moat and thin margins, so returns rest on cyclical staffing demand rather than durable advantages. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and net margin should improve over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterGross and net margin scores near 1.5 show thin profitability that a soft labor market could erase quickly. | ||
At $58.50 the shares trade 11.9% above the $51.57 analyst target, so the target has been reached and the downside of 14.1% outweighs remaining upside. Analyst target | Either earnings growth lifts analyst targets above $58.50 or the price should be expected to consolidate over 12 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterLight analyst coverage (3.0) dampens the target signal, and targets often lag a stock that is re-rating on improving earnings. | ||
Momentum scores 8.6/10 with rising OBV, a 2.0x volume surge on an up move and price above the 200-day average, although RSI of 72 is overbought. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day average through the next 12 months as volume support persists. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRSI of 72 and a stock already above its target suggest the move is stretched and prone to a pullback. | ||
Kforce beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters but revenue has been roughly flat near $330-350M per quarter, down from $373M in late 2023. Revenue quarters | Quarterly revenue should exceed the $354M next-quarter estimate and keep rising through the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA 36% EPS miss in the February 2026 quarter shows earnings can disappoint sharply, and average surprise is slightly negative at -1.0%. | ||
Earnings are due in 2 days with high implied volatility of about 80%, so the stock faces binary event risk at an elevated price. Next earnings date | The coming report should confirm EPS above the estimate and keep guidance supportive over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA low put/call ratio of 0.22 and positive institutional accumulation suggest the market is positioned for a beat. | ||
Quality is 5.1/10 with a 28% ROE but no competitive moat and thin margins, so returns rest on cyclical staffing demand rather than durable advantages.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and net margin should improve over the next 12 months.
CounterGross and net margin scores near 1.5 show thin profitability that a soft labor market could erase quickly.
At $58.50 the shares trade 11.9% above the $51.57 analyst target, so the target has been reached and the downside of 14.1% outweighs remaining upside.
↓DeterioratingAnalyst target
- Expectation
- Either earnings growth lifts analyst targets above $58.50 or the price should be expected to consolidate over 12 months.
CounterLight analyst coverage (3.0) dampens the target signal, and targets often lag a stock that is re-rating on improving earnings.
Momentum scores 8.6/10 with rising OBV, a 2.0x volume surge on an up move and price above the 200-day average, although RSI of 72 is overbought.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day average through the next 12 months as volume support persists.
CounterRSI of 72 and a stock already above its target suggest the move is stretched and prone to a pullback.
Kforce beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters but revenue has been roughly flat near $330-350M per quarter, down from $373M in late 2023.
↑ImprovingRevenue quarters
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should exceed the $354M next-quarter estimate and keep rising through the next 12 months.
CounterA 36% EPS miss in the February 2026 quarter shows earnings can disappoint sharply, and average surprise is slightly negative at -1.0%.
Earnings are due in 2 days with high implied volatility of about 80%, so the stock faces binary event risk at an elevated price.
↑ImprovingNext earnings date
- Expectation
- The coming report should confirm EPS above the estimate and keep guidance supportive over the next 12 months.
CounterA low put/call ratio of 0.22 and positive institutional accumulation suggest the market is positioned for a beat.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.4 |
| Gross margin | 1.6 |
| Op margin | 2.5 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.7 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.1 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (3.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $109,800 (0.011% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.9 |
| quality rank | 7.1 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.1 |
| support resistance | 4.1 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 3.3 |
| volatility | 3.1 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| debt equity | 6.1 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:95d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.52
Upside
-6.2%
Downside
11.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Growth at 7.2) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.52 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 7.2, Insider at 7.0, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Value at 4.6, Technical at 4.9, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.52 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifShare price exceeds $65 without the analyst target rising above $58.50.
- P2Strong Price Momentum
Trip ifShare price falls below the entry level of $53.40.
- P3Profitable But Moatless Business
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 28%.
- P4Earnings Beats With Flat Revenue
Trip ifQuarterly revenue stays below $330M for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Earnings Event Risk Imminent
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.