Value
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.3 |
| PEG | 9.2 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 17.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.64
KEX · Why this verdict
Why Kirby (KEX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
A perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and a maximum Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 reflect a well-run business, but the stock is range-bound near its analyst price target with only 1.9% upside remaining and a risk/reward ratio of 0.41 that does not favor new entry at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 3.6%, demonstrating consistent and reliable over-delivery relative to analyst expectations. Catalyst breakdown | If the beat streak breaks, an EPS surprise should fall below 0% in any reported quarter — ending the unbroken run of positive surprises. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith consistently modest beat magnitudes of roughly 1-8%, the company may be conservatively guiding to a level that is easy to clear rather than genuinely under-promising and over-delivering; a single quarter of modest guidance miss could end the streak without indicating fundamental deterioration. | ||
The stock sits approximately 1.9% below the analyst price target, generating a risk/reward ratio of 0.41 — meaning the potential downside to the stop-loss level outweighs the upside to the target by more than 2-to-1 — which does not support new entry at current prices. Price targets | If the risk/reward improves to favor entry, analyst consensus should raise the price target such that implied upside exceeds 15% from current levels. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe analyst community views the stock favorably with a rating score above 7.5 out of 10, and a modest pullback from current levels would restore a more attractive risk/reward ratio without requiring a fundamental change in the business outlook. | ||
A perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the highest achievable reading — reflects broad-based strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, indicating a business in excellent fundamental condition. Quality breakdown | If financial health deteriorates meaningfully, the Piotroski score should decline below 7 for 2 consecutive reported periods. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA maximum Piotroski score can mask the absence of a competitive moat, as the framework measures financial health rather than defensibility of returns; the business lacks a discernible competitive moat, which limits the degree to which this financial health can compound at a premium rate. | ||
Momentum is stalling at a range-bound mid-band level, with the reading falling just short of the threshold required to signal an active technical setup and price oscillating near mid-range Bollinger Bands — the stock lacks the directional urgency needed to justify new entry on a technical basis. Engine gate (failed) | If momentum improves to support a breakout setup, RSI should sustain above 60 for 4 consecutive weeks while on-balance volume continues its current rising trend. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOn-balance volume is already rising and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average — two constructive technical conditions — suggesting that momentum is recovering from below rather than deteriorating from above, and a breakout may be closer than the stalled reading implies. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the four most recent reported quarters, with an average positive surprise of approximately 3.6%, demonstrating consistent and reliable over-delivery relative to analyst expectations.
↑ImprovingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- If the beat streak breaks, an EPS surprise should fall below 0% in any reported quarter — ending the unbroken run of positive surprises.
CounterWith consistently modest beat magnitudes of roughly 1-8%, the company may be conservatively guiding to a level that is easy to clear rather than genuinely under-promising and over-delivering; a single quarter of modest guidance miss could end the streak without indicating fundamental deterioration.
The stock sits approximately 1.9% below the analyst price target, generating a risk/reward ratio of 0.41 — meaning the potential downside to the stop-loss level outweighs the upside to the target by more than 2-to-1 — which does not support new entry at current prices.
↓DeterioratingPrice targets
- Expectation
- If the risk/reward improves to favor entry, analyst consensus should raise the price target such that implied upside exceeds 15% from current levels.
CounterThe analyst community views the stock favorably with a rating score above 7.5 out of 10, and a modest pullback from current levels would restore a more attractive risk/reward ratio without requiring a fundamental change in the business outlook.
A perfect Piotroski financial health score of 9 out of 9 — the highest achievable reading — reflects broad-based strength across profitability, leverage, and operating efficiency, indicating a business in excellent fundamental condition.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If financial health deteriorates meaningfully, the Piotroski score should decline below 7 for 2 consecutive reported periods.
CounterA maximum Piotroski score can mask the absence of a competitive moat, as the framework measures financial health rather than defensibility of returns; the business lacks a discernible competitive moat, which limits the degree to which this financial health can compound at a premium rate.
Momentum is stalling at a range-bound mid-band level, with the reading falling just short of the threshold required to signal an active technical setup and price oscillating near mid-range Bollinger Bands — the stock lacks the directional urgency needed to justify new entry on a technical basis.
↓DeterioratingEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- If momentum improves to support a breakout setup, RSI should sustain above 60 for 4 consecutive weeks while on-balance volume continues its current rising trend.
CounterOn-balance volume is already rising and the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average — two constructive technical conditions — suggesting that momentum is recovering from below rather than deteriorating from above, and a breakout may be closer than the stalled reading implies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 71%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 2.6 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 5.2 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 7.3 |
Momentum
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 8.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.7 |
| Analyst rating | 7.7 |
| Price target | 7.6 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.34 (n=5)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 4.7 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
Technical
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 8.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 2.9 |
| implied vol | 7.1 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 8.6 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.57
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:8.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.60
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:89d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.40
Upside
+4.1%
Downside
10.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.7 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 8.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.40 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 8.5, Sentiment at 7.4, and Value at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.2, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.40 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any reported quarter.
- P2Near Target Thin Risk Reward
Trip ifImplied upside to analyst consensus price target exceeds 15%.
- P3Maximum Financial Health Score
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 7 for 2 consecutive reported periods.
- P4Range Bound Momentum At Threshold
Trip ifRSI sustains above 60 for 4 consecutive weeks while on-balance volume continues rising.