Value
9.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
- ▸Attractively valued
JBI · Why this verdict
Why Janus International Group (JBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Janus trades at a forward P/E of 6.8x with a PEG of 0.04 and converts 123% of net income into free cash flow, a cheap multiple backed by cash. Valuation breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward P/E stays below 10x as the price recovers. | →Stable |
| CounterMargins and returns are low, with no competitive moat, so cheap multiples may reflect a cyclical business with limited pricing power. | ||
At $4.45 the stock is 45.1% below the $6.46 analyst target, with 9.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 4.6. Targets | Price moves toward the $6.46 analyst target as earnings stabilize. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is down 57% from its 52-week high with 148% implied volatility, and analyst coverage is light. | ||
Quarterly revenue of $233.5M in July 2026 is up from $228.1M a year earlier, after falling from $280.1M in September 2023. Earnings | Quarterly revenue holds above $233M, in line with the estimated $235.0M next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterRevenue is still far below the 2023 level, and growth is weak with a growth score of 3.1 on revenue. | ||
Quality is middling at 5.1/10 with no competitive moat and a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1, which weakens resilience in a downturn. Bear case | Debt-to-equity falls below 1.0 and quality moves above 6. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHigher leverage in a cyclical industry could pressure earnings if demand weakens further. | ||
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 5.8% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and momentum is 5.8/10. Momentum breakdown | The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and an inconsistent earnings record leaves room for another leg down. | ||
Janus trades at a forward P/E of 6.8x with a PEG of 0.04 and converts 123% of net income into free cash flow, a cheap multiple backed by cash.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the forward P/E stays below 10x as the price recovers.
CounterMargins and returns are low, with no competitive moat, so cheap multiples may reflect a cyclical business with limited pricing power.
At $4.45 the stock is 45.1% below the $6.46 analyst target, with 9.9% downside to the stop, a reward-to-risk of 4.6.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $6.46 analyst target as earnings stabilize.
CounterThe stock is down 57% from its 52-week high with 148% implied volatility, and analyst coverage is light.
Quarterly revenue of $233.5M in July 2026 is up from $228.1M a year earlier, after falling from $280.1M in September 2023.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds above $233M, in line with the estimated $235.0M next quarter.
CounterRevenue is still far below the 2023 level, and growth is weak with a growth score of 3.1 on revenue.
Quality is middling at 5.1/10 with no competitive moat and a leverage penalty from a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1, which weakens resilience in a downturn.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Debt-to-equity falls below 1.0 and quality moves above 6.
CounterHigher leverage in a cyclical industry could pressure earnings if demand weakens further.
Price is below a 200-day average sloping down 5.8% per 30 days, a confirmed downtrend, although on-balance volume is rising and momentum is 5.8/10.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- The 200-day average stops falling and price reclaims it while volume accumulation continues.
CounterA recovering setup after a death cross can fail, and an inconsistent earnings record leaves room for another leg down.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.0 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 3.2 |
| Op margin | 3.8 |
| Net margin | 1.8 |
| Current ratio | 9.8 |
| FCF quality | 9.1 |
| Moat | 4.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 123% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.1 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 6.6 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 5.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.5 |
| Price target | 9.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (5.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 75%
Insider
6.0/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.6 |
| quality rank | 2.3 |
| growth rank | 2.4 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.2 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 8.4 |
| volatility | 3.7 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 5.3 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 10.00
- ▸High IV: 167%
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings in 11 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- ASYMMETRY:7.3>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- 8K_SERIOUS:2.05
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:11d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
7.35
Upside
+51.9%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 50
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.6B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -59% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.0 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, 8K_SERIOUS:2.05) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 7.35 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Sentiment at 7.2, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Technical at 3.5, and Momentum at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 7.35 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Valuation Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 123%.
- P2Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $4.15 stop level from the current $4.45.
- P3Revenue Stabilizing After Decline
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $215M from the latest $233.5M.
- P4Leverage And Low Quality
Trip ifDebt-to-equity rises above 1.5 from the current 1.1.
- P5Downtrend With Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 4.0 from the current 5.8.