Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 7.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.06
- ▸Attractively valued
JBI · Why this verdict
Why Janus International Group (JBI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Janus International trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.06, supporting a note describing it as attractively valued and a value score of 8.9/10. Valuation breakdown | The value score should hold near 8.9 or improve, and the forward P/E should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock this cheap on a forward basis while facing a hard death-cross block could reflect the market pricing in genuine deterioration rather than a temporary discount. | ||
The company converts net income into free cash flow at an excellent 140% rate, a strong sign of earnings quality despite lacking a defined competitive moat. Quality breakdown | FCF-to-net-income conversion should remain at or above 100% over the next 12 months, sustaining the strong cash conversion. | →Stable |
| CounterThe notes explicitly flag no competitive moat, meaning strong current cash conversion may not be durable if pricing power erodes. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed with a hard block on a death cross, reflecting price below its 200-day moving average with the average declining sharply at -9.7%/30 days, described as a confirmed downtrend. Engine gate (failed) | The 200-day moving average slope should turn positive and momentum should climb back above the 4.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses. | →Stable |
| CounterA hard-blocked death cross is one of the engine's most severe technical red flags and historically signals continued weakness rather than an imminent reversal. | ||
The options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.00, indicating heavy bearish positioning or hedging activity relative to the stock's typical options flow. Key risks | The put/call ratio should normalize down from 5.00 toward more typical levels over the next 12 months if bearish sentiment fades. | →Stable |
| CounterAn extremely elevated put/call ratio can also reflect a small options market with thin, distortive volume rather than a genuine broad-based bearish view. | ||
Analyst price targets still imply 25% upside from the current price even amid the momentum and technical weakness, with the engine's asymmetry ratio at 2.76x. Bull case | The analyst upside percentage should stay meaningfully positive, and price should begin closing the gap toward the take-profit target over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the confirmed technical downtrend persists, price could continue falling well below any analyst-modeled fair value before a reversal begins. | ||
Janus International trades at a forward P/E of 7.6x with a PEG ratio of just 0.06, supporting a note describing it as attractively valued and a value score of 8.9/10.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score should hold near 8.9 or improve, and the forward P/E should re-rate higher toward peer averages over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock this cheap on a forward basis while facing a hard death-cross block could reflect the market pricing in genuine deterioration rather than a temporary discount.
The company converts net income into free cash flow at an excellent 140% rate, a strong sign of earnings quality despite lacking a defined competitive moat.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- FCF-to-net-income conversion should remain at or above 100% over the next 12 months, sustaining the strong cash conversion.
CounterThe notes explicitly flag no competitive moat, meaning strong current cash conversion may not be durable if pricing power erodes.
The engine's momentum gate failed with a hard block on a death cross, reflecting price below its 200-day moving average with the average declining sharply at -9.7%/30 days, described as a confirmed downtrend.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope should turn positive and momentum should climb back above the 4.5 gate threshold over the next 12 months if the downtrend reverses.
CounterA hard-blocked death cross is one of the engine's most severe technical red flags and historically signals continued weakness rather than an imminent reversal.
The options market shows an elevated put/call ratio of 5.00, indicating heavy bearish positioning or hedging activity relative to the stock's typical options flow.
→StableKey risks
- Expectation
- The put/call ratio should normalize down from 5.00 toward more typical levels over the next 12 months if bearish sentiment fades.
CounterAn extremely elevated put/call ratio can also reflect a small options market with thin, distortive volume rather than a genuine broad-based bearish view.
Analyst price targets still imply 25% upside from the current price even amid the momentum and technical weakness, with the engine's asymmetry ratio at 2.76x.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- The analyst upside percentage should stay meaningfully positive, and price should begin closing the gap toward the take-profit target over the next 12 months.
CounterIf the confirmed technical downtrend persists, price could continue falling well below any analyst-modeled fair value before a reversal begins.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Janus International screens cheap on a forward-earnings basis with strong cash conversion and meaningful analyst-modeled upside, but a hard-blocked death cross and elevated bearish options positioning reflect multiple concerning technical factors that argue for reducing rather than adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.6 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 3.5 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 2.4 |
| Current ratio | 8.9 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 140% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
7.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.3 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 1.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -10.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.8 |
| quality rank | 3.2 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.7 |
| support resistance | 7.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.0 |
| beta | 5.2 |
| debt equity | 4.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.50
Catalyst
3.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:3.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
3.41
Upside
+30.6%
Downside
9.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.7B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -52% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.9) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 3.41 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Insider at 7.5, and Growth at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.3, Catalyst at 3.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 3.41 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cheap Forward Pe Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 7.6x, or the value score falls below 5.0.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion Quality
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income conversion falls below 80% from the current 140%.
- P3Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.7, clearing the failed gate.
- P4Elevated Put Call Bearish Positioning
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 2.0 from the current 5.00.
- P5Analyst Modeled Upside Despite Weakness
Trip ifAnalyst upside percentage falls below 10% from the current 25%.