Value
7.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.8 |
| P/S | 8.2 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.7 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.99
- ▸Attractively valued
ITRN · Why this verdict
Why Ituran Location and Control (ITRN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Ituran trades at a PEG ratio of 0.97 with a forward P/E of 15.6x, supporting a note describing it as attractively valued relative to its growth. Valuation breakdown | The value score (currently 7.3/10) should hold or improve, and the PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 as growth continues. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG near 1.0 is only modestly cheap, not a deep bargain, leaving little valuation cushion if growth or momentum disappoints. | ||
Ituran is characterized as a high-quality business with excellent ROE of 30% and strong margins of 16%, backed by a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should hold near 30% and the Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 8/9 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 suggests some of this ROE strength could be amplified by financial leverage rather than pure operating efficiency. | ||
The risk/reward asymmetry gate failed, with a ratio of 1.18x falling short of the 1.5x minimum, driven by a thin 9.3% upside margin to the analyst-based take-profit target against 7.9% downside risk. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5x as price pulls back toward a better entry or the take-profit target is raised, clearing the gate. | →Stable |
| CounterIf the stock's momentum weakness persists, price could continue declining without ever generating an attractive entry, leaving the asymmetry gate permanently failed. | ||
The engine's momentum gate failed, with momentum at 3.7 versus a 4.5 threshold, but classifies this as a temporary headwind given the underlying business quality score of 8.0, and technicals show the stock oversold within an uptrend while still above its 200-day moving average. Edge rationale | Momentum score should climb back above 4.5 over the next 12 months as the oversold condition resolves, given the stock remains above its 200-day moving average. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests real selling pressure, which could mean the momentum weakness is more than a temporary pause. | ||
Despite a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, the catalyst dimension flags a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield may not be safely sustained, with a dividend safety score of just 4.2. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend safety score should rise above 4.2 with no distribution cut over the next 12 months if the payout proves sustainable. | →Stable |
| CounterA continued earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) provides some support for maintaining the dividend even if the safety score currently looks weak. | ||
Ituran trades at a PEG ratio of 0.97 with a forward P/E of 15.6x, supporting a note describing it as attractively valued relative to its growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score (currently 7.3/10) should hold or improve, and the PEG ratio should stay below 1.0 as growth continues.
CounterA PEG near 1.0 is only modestly cheap, not a deep bargain, leaving little valuation cushion if growth or momentum disappoints.
Ituran is characterized as a high-quality business with excellent ROE of 30% and strong margins of 16%, backed by a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should hold near 30% and the Piotroski F-Score should stay at or above 8/9 over the next 12 months.
CounterA leverage penalty tied to a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.0 suggests some of this ROE strength could be amplified by financial leverage rather than pure operating efficiency.
The risk/reward asymmetry gate failed, with a ratio of 1.18x falling short of the 1.5x minimum, driven by a thin 9.3% upside margin to the analyst-based take-profit target against 7.9% downside risk.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should rise above 1.5x as price pulls back toward a better entry or the take-profit target is raised, clearing the gate.
CounterIf the stock's momentum weakness persists, price could continue declining without ever generating an attractive entry, leaving the asymmetry gate permanently failed.
The engine's momentum gate failed, with momentum at 3.7 versus a 4.5 threshold, but classifies this as a temporary headwind given the underlying business quality score of 8.0, and technicals show the stock oversold within an uptrend while still above its 200-day moving average.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Momentum score should climb back above 4.5 over the next 12 months as the oversold condition resolves, given the stock remains above its 200-day moving average.
CounterFalling on-balance volume suggests real selling pressure, which could mean the momentum weakness is more than a temporary pause.
Despite a 3-of-4 earnings beat streak, the catalyst dimension flags a yield-trap warning, indicating the dividend yield may not be safely sustained, with a dividend safety score of just 4.2.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend safety score should rise above 4.2 with no distribution cut over the next 12 months if the payout proves sustainable.
CounterA continued earnings beat streak (3 of the last 4 quarters) provides some support for maintaining the dividend even if the safety score currently looks weak.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Ituran is a high-quality, reasonably valued business currently facing a momentum headwind and a failed risk/reward gate, with a yield-trap warning on its dividend adding to the case for trimming rather than adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.1 |
| Gross margin | 5.9 |
| Op margin | 8.6 |
| Net margin | 8.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.7 |
| FCF quality | 7.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.2 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.6 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 21)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 35%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
7.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.6 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 7.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
8.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.5 |
| 52w position | 6.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 9.0 |
| volatility | 1.3 |
| put call | 8.3 |
| implied vol | 0.6 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 76%
- ▸Above max pain $30
Catalyst
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.4 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.5%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_E_WIDE_MOAT|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:1.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:42d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.61
Upside
+14.4%
Downside
8.9%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.3) with weak momentum (3.2)
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.1B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 3.2<4.5 outcome against Technical at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 1.61.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.5, Quality at 8.3, and Peer rank at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Catalyst at 4.7, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.61 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Excellent Roe
Trip ifROE falls below 15% from the current 30%, or the Piotroski F-Score falls below 6 out of 9.
- P2Attractive Peg Valuation
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 2.0 from the current 0.97, or the value score falls below 5.0.
- P3Momentum Gate Temporary Headwind
Trip ifMomentum score rises above 4.5 from the current 3.7, clearing the failed gate.
- P4Thin Asymmetry Gate Failure
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.5x from the current 1.18x.
- P5Yield Trap Dividend Warning
Trip ifDividend safety score falls below 3.0 from the current 4.2, or the company cuts its dividend by more than 10%.