Value
8.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 8.5 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.47
- ▸Attractively valued
ITRN · Why this verdict
Why Ituran Location and Control (ITRN) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score7.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Growth is strong at 21% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $86.8M in June 2025 to $104.8M in June 2026. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue holds above $104M, in line with the $104.7M estimate for next quarter. | →Stable |
| CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is flat versus the latest quarter, which suggests growth may be slowing, and the quarterly figures are provisional. | ||
Ituran earns an excellent 30% ROE with 16% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, ranking best in class among peers. Quality breakdown | ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 16% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe sector is under a technology risk-off penalty, and a high ROE can narrow if growth slows. | ||
At $50.52 the stock is 25.3% below the $63.32 analyst target, with 5.0% downside to the $47.30 stop, a reward-to-risk of 5.1. Targets | Price moves toward the $63.32 analyst target as earnings are delivered. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock is below its 200-day average with falling volume, so the market may not be willing to pay up to the target. | ||
Ituran met or beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with 3 beats and 1 in-line result, for an average surprise of +5.0%. Earnings | The November 24 report meets or beats the consensus estimate. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats are small, and the August 2025 miss of 8.2% shows results can disappoint. | ||
Momentum is weak at 1.9/10 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, although the average is still rising 3.2% per 30 days, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.43. Momentum breakdown | On-balance volume stops falling and price reclaims the 200-day moving average. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put positioning and distribution volume suggest investors expect further weakness. | ||
Growth is strong at 21% year over year, with quarterly revenue rising from $86.8M in June 2025 to $104.8M in June 2026.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue holds above $104M, in line with the $104.7M estimate for next quarter.
CounterEstimated next-quarter revenue is flat versus the latest quarter, which suggests growth may be slowing, and the quarterly figures are provisional.
Ituran earns an excellent 30% ROE with 16% margins, a wide economic moat and a 9/9 Piotroski score, ranking best in class among peers.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays near 30% and margins stay near 16% over the next 12 months.
CounterThe sector is under a technology risk-off penalty, and a high ROE can narrow if growth slows.
At $50.52 the stock is 25.3% below the $63.32 analyst target, with 5.0% downside to the $47.30 stop, a reward-to-risk of 5.1.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price moves toward the $63.32 analyst target as earnings are delivered.
CounterThe stock is below its 200-day average with falling volume, so the market may not be willing to pay up to the target.
Ituran met or beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with 3 beats and 1 in-line result, for an average surprise of +5.0%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 24 report meets or beats the consensus estimate.
CounterBeats are small, and the August 2025 miss of 8.2% shows results can disappoint.
Momentum is weak at 1.9/10 with falling on-balance volume and price below the 200-day average, although the average is still rising 3.2% per 30 days, and the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.43.
↑ImprovingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- On-balance volume stops falling and price reclaims the 200-day moving average.
CounterElevated put positioning and distribution volume suggest investors expect further weakness.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 9.3 |
| Gross margin | 6.0 |
| Op margin | 9.1 |
| Net margin | 8.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.9 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 30%
- ▸Strong margins: 16%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 7.7 |
| EPS growth | 7.9 |
- ▸Strong growth: 21% YoY
Momentum
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.40 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 41%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
8.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 7.6 |
- ▸Best in class
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.4 |
| support resistance | 1.3 |
| 52w position | 5.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.0 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 6.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 8.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 3.8%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Value play: 35% MoS with quality 8.3.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_VALUE_MOS33|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.8>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.6>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.63
Upside
+20.0%
Downside
7.6%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $1.0B<$5B
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects clean gate clearance against Value at 8.5 and asymmetric R:R of 2.63.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.5, Quality at 8.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 8.3; the weakest are Technical at 2.8, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.9. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.63 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Wide Moat
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 20% from the current 30%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 8% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Analyst Target Upside
Trip ifStock price falls below the $47.30 stop level from the current $50.52.
- P4Consistent Earnings Beats
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Weak Momentum Bearish Options
Trip ifPut/call ratio rises above 3.5 from the current 2.43.