Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ITRG · Why this verdict
Why Integra Resources (ITRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with an outsized analyst-implied upside, but a likely commodity-cycle earnings peak, consecutive earnings misses, a severe earnings-quality red flag, and small-cap constraints temper the case for adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level. Reward-to-risk math | The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup. | →Stable |
| CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced. | ||
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices. Warnings | If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated. | ||
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out. Bear case | The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats. | ||
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score. | ||
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating. Suitability rationale | Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely. | ||
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup.
CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced.
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters.
CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated.
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved.
CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats.
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease.
CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score.
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating.
CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.7 |
| ROA | 8.4 |
| Gross margin | 5.5 |
| Op margin | 7.6 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 7.7 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.1 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -277% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
6.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.5 |
Momentum
2.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.2 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 151%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 7.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.8 |
| days to cover | 7.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 1.1 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 13 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- ASYMMETRY:10.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.08x
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:13d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
10.54
Upside
+113.4%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFalling Knife — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 36, MACD bearish
EdgeSector Rotation — Basic Materials sector out of favor, value=8.7
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -53% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.3<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.5x,ratio=0.08x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 10.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 7.1, and Growth at 6.5; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.3, Momentum at 2.3, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 10.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Massive Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target is cut by more than 30% within 2 quarters, confirming the outsized upside estimate was unreliable.
- P2Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, contradicting the cycle-peak concern.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe next 2 quarterly earnings reports both beat consensus estimates by more than 5%, breaking the recent miss pattern.
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag Despite Strong Piotroski
Trip ifFree-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio rises above -50%, improving from the current deeply negative reading.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $5B, removing the small-cap institutional-access constraint this thesis relies on.