Value
8.7/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 4.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.00
- ▸Attractively valued
ITRG · Why this verdict
Why Integra Resources (ITRG) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.5/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level. Reward-to-risk math | The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup. | →Stable |
| CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced. | ||
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices. Warnings | If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated. | ||
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out. Bear case | The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats. | ||
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation. Quality breakdown | The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score. | ||
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating. Suitability rationale | Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating. | →Stable |
| CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely. | ||
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with analyst price targets implying very large upside, and the engine's own asymmetry ratio sits at an extreme level.
→StableReward-to-risk math
- Expectation
- The stock should progress meaningfully toward the analyst target over the next 12 months given the outsized risk-reward setup.
CounterThis is flagged as a commodity-cycle peak — EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge, so the forward estimate may be built on stale spot pricing with mean-reversion risk unpriced.
The engine's materials-cycle-peak gate failed, flagging that the low forward-to-trailing earnings ratio suggests earnings may be at a cyclical peak tied to elevated commodity prices.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- If the cycle-peak concern is overstated, revenue and earnings should continue growing rather than reverting over the next several quarters.
CounterPrecious-metals cycles can extend longer than models assume if commodity prices remain structurally elevated.
ITRG has missed earnings estimates in 2 of its last 4 quarters, an inconsistency the bear case specifically calls out.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- The earnings surprise trend should turn back toward consistent beats for the miss pattern to be considered resolved.
CounterThe average surprise across all 4 quarters remains positive overall, suggesting the misses haven't been severe enough to outweigh the beats.
Despite an elite Piotroski F-Score, the engine flags a severe earnings-quality red flag with free-cash-flow-to-net-income deeply negative, indicating reported earnings are far from being backed by cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio should improve materially toward positive territory over the next few quarters for the quality concern to ease.
CounterHeavy negative free-cash-flow-to-net-income at a mining company can reflect large capex investment in mine development rather than a genuine earnings-quality problem, especially alongside a perfect Piotroski score.
At its current market cap, ITRG sits below the engine's institutional-reach threshold, and the stock trades well off its 52-week high, a large drawdown reflected in its speculative suitability rating.
→StableSuitability rationale
- Expectation
- Should the company grow and the drawdown recover, this constraint should ease and support a valuation re-rating.
CounterPersistent small-cap, speculative-mining status could mean this constraint never resolves, keeping the stock volatile and overlooked indefinitely.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
ITRG screens as deeply undervalued with an outsized analyst-implied upside, but a likely commodity-cycle earnings peak, consecutive earnings misses, a severe earnings-quality red flag, and small-cap constraints temper the case for adding to the position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 1.6 |
| ROA | 9.3 |
| Gross margin | 5.7 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 1.9 |
| Current ratio | 8.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -286% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
4.5/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
Momentum
2.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 3.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.9 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 190%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
2.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.6 |
| quality rank | 3.6 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.1 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 10.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| beta | 4.4 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:9.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:36d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.0x,ratio=0.07x
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
9.82
Upside
+146.3%
Downside
14.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -55% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.7) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.1<4.5, MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:fwd=4.0x,ratio=0.07x) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 9.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.7, Sentiment at 7.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.6; the weakest are Momentum at 2.1, Peer rank at 2.7, and Growth at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value With Massive Analyst Upside
Trip ifAnalyst price target is cut by more than 30% within 2 quarters, confirming the outsized upside estimate was unreliable.
- P2Commodity Cycle Peak Risk
Trip ifRevenue growth exceeds 15% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters, contradicting the cycle-peak concern.
- P3Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifThe next 2 quarterly earnings reports both beat consensus estimates by more than 5%, breaking the recent miss pattern.
- P4Earnings Quality Red Flag Despite Strong Piotroski
Trip ifFree-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio rises above -50%, improving from the current deeply negative reading.
- P5Small Cap Institutional Constraint
Trip ifMarket capitalization exceeds $5B, removing the small-cap institutional-access constraint this thesis relies on.