Value
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.6 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.4x
- ▸PEG: 0.88
IT · Why this verdict
Why Gartner (IT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Gartner is a high-quality, cash-generative research business with a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and 114% ROE, but revenue is declining, sentiment is negative, and the $230.28 price is 26.8% above the $168.58 analyst target.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue is declining 1% year over year and subscription-based insights products make up 78.0% of the business, so growth depends on renewals. Bear case | Quarterly revenue returns to growth above the $1.69B reported a year earlier. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterDeclining revenue with heavy subscription concentration could signal weaker renewals, and estimated next-quarter revenue of $1.49B is below the latest quarter. | ||
Gartner earns an excellent 114% ROE and converts 136% of net income into free cash flow, which signals a high-quality, cash-generative business. Quality breakdown | ROE stays above 80% and free cash flow stays above net income. | →Stable |
| CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base from buybacks and leverage, and the Rule of 40 score of 16 fails. | ||
Gartner beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +14.2% and $4.37 versus a $3.73 estimate in August 2026. Earnings | The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates, and the stock may not react if revenue growth keeps slowing. | ||
At $230.28 the stock is 26.8% above the $168.58 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, so analysts see no upside from here. Targets | Analysts raise targets toward $230 as earnings beats continue. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith news sentiment at -0.44 and RSI at 80, the stock looks overextended and a pullback toward analyst targets is plausible. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.4/10 with rising on-balance volume, but RSI is 80 and the 200-day average slope is flat to negative, with short interest at 16%. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average without RSI staying above 80. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterOverbought conditions with a flat long-term trend carry late-cycle distribution risk. | ||
Revenue is declining 1% year over year and subscription-based insights products make up 78.0% of the business, so growth depends on renewals.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue returns to growth above the $1.69B reported a year earlier.
CounterDeclining revenue with heavy subscription concentration could signal weaker renewals, and estimated next-quarter revenue of $1.49B is below the latest quarter.
Gartner earns an excellent 114% ROE and converts 136% of net income into free cash flow, which signals a high-quality, cash-generative business.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE stays above 80% and free cash flow stays above net income.
CounterA very high ROE can reflect a small equity base from buybacks and leverage, and the Rule of 40 score of 16 fails.
Gartner beat estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of +14.2% and $4.37 versus a $3.73 estimate in August 2026.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- The November 3 report beats the consensus estimate for a fifth straight quarter.
CounterBeats may reflect conservative estimates, and the stock may not react if revenue growth keeps slowing.
At $230.28 the stock is 26.8% above the $168.58 analyst target, with 15.0% downside to the stop, so analysts see no upside from here.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise targets toward $230 as earnings beats continue.
CounterWith news sentiment at -0.44 and RSI at 80, the stock looks overextended and a pullback toward analyst targets is plausible.
Momentum is strong at 7.4/10 with rising on-balance volume, but RSI is 80 and the 200-day average slope is flat to negative, with short interest at 16%.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average without RSI staying above 80.
CounterOverbought conditions with a flat long-term trend carry late-cycle distribution risk.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.8 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 9.0 |
| Net margin | 6.0 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 114%
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 136% FCF/NI
- ▸Rule of 40: 16 (fail)
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.3 |
| EPS growth | 8.6 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -1%
Momentum
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 2.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.3 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=3)
- ▸Below analyst target
Insider
6.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 6.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,371,008 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.9 |
| quality rank | 8.7 |
| growth rank | 2.1 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 3.1 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.6 |
| days to cover | 3.2 |
| volatility | 3.0 |
| put call | 9.1 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 7.1 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $120
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 9.6 |
| news activity | 7.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 4 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.3>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.54
Upside
-23.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Catalyst at 7.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:4d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.54 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.3, Quality at 7.1, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Sentiment at 3.7, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.3, and Technical at 4.6. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.54 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 90% of net income from the current 136%.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% at the November 3 report.
- P3Declining Revenue Subscription Concentration
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue decline exceeds 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the $214.28 stop level from the current $230.28.
- P5Overbought Short Interest
Trip ifShort interest rises above 20% from the current 16%.