Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 7.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.40
- ▸Attractively valued
ISTR · Why this verdict
Why Investar Holding (ISTR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Investar has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 20.89%, and the engine flags an upcoming earnings catalyst in 16 days riding this beat streak. Earnings | The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter and average surprise should stay near or above 20% at the next earnings report on 2026-07-20. | →Stable |
| CounterA streak of beats increases the risk that expectations have caught up, making a beat harder to achieve and raising the odds of the streak breaking. | ||
Investar trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x with a PEG ratio of 0.41 against 58% YoY growth, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth profile. Valuation breakdown | The value score (currently 7.9/10) should hold or improve, and the forward P/E should expand toward peer averages as growth is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterRegional bank valuations often stay structurally cheap due to credit-cycle risk, meaning the low multiple may persist rather than re-rate. | ||
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving only -4.9% modeled upside, which is why the engine's asymmetry gate failed with a ratio of -0.92. Warnings | The analyst target price should be raised above the current level, or the stock should pull back toward the entry target, to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA stock reaching its price target can still continue running higher if forward estimates get revised up following continued earnings beats. | ||
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $54,720 worth of stock in the last 90 days with a BULLISH signal and zero insider sells. Insider transaction read | The insider signal should remain BULLISH or see continued net buying over the next 12 months if management confidence in the business persists. | →Stable |
| CounterThe purchase is flagged as low materiality, meaning the dollar amount is small relative to market cap and may not carry strong predictive signal. | ||
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, supporting a momentum score of 5.8, just above the engine's 5.5 threshold. Momentum breakdown | Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average and OBV should keep rising over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum is only marginally above the gate threshold (5.8 vs 5.5), leaving little cushion before the momentum gate itself would fail. | ||
Investar has beaten earnings estimates in all of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 20.89%, and the engine flags an upcoming earnings catalyst in 16 days riding this beat streak.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The beat streak should extend to a 5th consecutive quarter and average surprise should stay near or above 20% at the next earnings report on 2026-07-20.
CounterA streak of beats increases the risk that expectations have caught up, making a beat harder to achieve and raising the odds of the streak breaking.
Investar trades at a forward P/E of 9.1x with a PEG ratio of 0.41 against 58% YoY growth, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth profile.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The value score (currently 7.9/10) should hold or improve, and the forward P/E should expand toward peer averages as growth is recognized.
CounterRegional bank valuations often stay structurally cheap due to credit-cycle risk, meaning the low multiple may persist rather than re-rate.
The stock has already reached its analyst price target, leaving only -4.9% modeled upside, which is why the engine's asymmetry gate failed with a ratio of -0.92.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- The analyst target price should be raised above the current level, or the stock should pull back toward the entry target, to restore positive asymmetry over the next 12 months.
CounterA stock reaching its price target can still continue running higher if forward estimates get revised up following continued earnings beats.
Insiders have been net buyers, purchasing $54,720 worth of stock in the last 90 days with a BULLISH signal and zero insider sells.
→StableInsider transaction read
- Expectation
- The insider signal should remain BULLISH or see continued net buying over the next 12 months if management confidence in the business persists.
CounterThe purchase is flagged as low materiality, meaning the dollar amount is small relative to market cap and may not carry strong predictive signal.
The stock trades above its 200-day moving average with rising on-balance volume, supporting a momentum score of 5.8, just above the engine's 5.5 threshold.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should continue to hold above the 200-day moving average and OBV should keep rising over the next 12 months.
CounterMomentum is only marginally above the gate threshold (5.8 vs 5.5), leaving little cushion before the momentum gate itself would fail.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Investar combines a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak and cheap valuation relative to its growth with insider buying and positive momentum, but the stock has already reached its analyst target, leaving the engine's risk/reward gate failed and arguing against adding to the position at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.9 |
| ROA | 0.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
8.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 6.4 |
- ▸Strong growth: 58% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.2 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.8/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸Insider buying (low materiality) — $54,720 (0.014% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 2.8 |
| growth rank | 9.4 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
9.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 10.0 |
| support resistance | 9.7 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
8.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.4 |
| days to cover | 9.9 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.5=NEGATIVE
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.45
Upside
-2.3%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 9.3; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 9.3, Risk (lower is worse) at 8.9, and Growth at 8.2; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Quality at 5.1, and Peer rank at 5.7. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.45 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEarnings beat streak breaks with a miss or in-line result, or average surprise falls below 5% at the next report.
- P2Attractive Valuation Vs Growth
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 15x from the current 9.1x, or the value score falls below 5.0.
- P3Analyst Target Already Reached
Trip ifAnalyst target price rises more than 10% from its current level, restoring positive modeled upside.
- P4Insider Buying Signal
Trip ifInsider signal flips to BEARISH, or net insider selling exceeds $100,000 in a 90-day period.
- P5Momentum Above 200 Day Ma
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 consecutive trading days.