Value
7.9/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.9x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
INDB · Why this verdict
Why Independent Bank (INDB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Independent Bank is an attractively valued regional bank with strong growth and a breakout chart, but the price has moved 2.3% above the analyst target and loan and geographic concentration cap the case for adding.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Commercial loans make up 77.2% of the loan portfolio and the franchise is concentrated in Massachusetts and New England, so a regional credit downturn would hit hard. Bear case | Credit quality holds and commercial loan share does not rise further. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA regional commercial real estate downturn could raise credit losses well beyond what a diversified bank would see. | ||
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG of 0.22 while growing 24% year over year, so valuation looks low for its growth. Valuation breakdown | Earnings growth continues so forward P/E stays near 10x while the share price rises. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterPart of the growth may reflect an acquisition-driven step-up in revenue in late 2025, which will not repeat. | ||
At $83.72 the stock is 2.3% above the $81.78 analyst target, with 10.4% downside to the stop, so upside is negative on current estimates. Targets | Analysts raise price targets above the current $83.72 as earnings grow. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterWith the price already above target, any earnings disappointment leaves little cushion and a pullback is likely. | ||
Momentum is strong at 7.2/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume and RSI at 66. Momentum breakdown | Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume keeps rising. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are very low, which suggests the stock is stretched at the top of its range. | ||
Earnings are mixed: 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -1.1%, though the October 2026 report beat by 2.9%. Earnings | Quarterly EPS meets or beats estimates through the January 2027 report. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMisses in January and July 2026 show estimates have been hard to reach, and the dividend yield of 3.1% offers only modest cushion. | ||
Commercial loans make up 77.2% of the loan portfolio and the franchise is concentrated in Massachusetts and New England, so a regional credit downturn would hit hard.
↓DeterioratingBear case
- Expectation
- Credit quality holds and commercial loan share does not rise further.
CounterA regional commercial real estate downturn could raise credit losses well beyond what a diversified bank would see.
The bank trades at a forward P/E of 10.0x with a PEG of 0.22 while growing 24% year over year, so valuation looks low for its growth.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Earnings growth continues so forward P/E stays near 10x while the share price rises.
CounterPart of the growth may reflect an acquisition-driven step-up in revenue in late 2025, which will not repeat.
At $83.72 the stock is 2.3% above the $81.78 analyst target, with 10.4% downside to the stop, so upside is negative on current estimates.
↓DeterioratingTargets
- Expectation
- Analysts raise price targets above the current $83.72 as earnings grow.
CounterWith the price already above target, any earnings disappointment leaves little cushion and a pullback is likely.
Momentum is strong at 7.2/10 with a golden cross, price above all moving averages, rising on-balance volume and RSI at 66.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above the 200-day moving average and on-balance volume keeps rising.
CounterBollinger and support/resistance scores are very low, which suggests the stock is stretched at the top of its range.
Earnings are mixed: 2 beats and 2 misses in the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of -1.1%, though the October 2026 report beat by 2.9%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Quarterly EPS meets or beats estimates through the January 2027 report.
CounterMisses in January and July 2026 show estimates have been hard to reach, and the dividend yield of 3.1% offers only modest cushion.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.1 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 33%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
9.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.6 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 1.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.9 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $760,704 (0.019% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.1 |
| quality rank | 4.1 |
| growth rank | 7.7 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.1 |
| support resistance | 2.2 |
| 52w position | 9.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 1.7 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.75
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.7 |
| dividend safety | 4.5 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 3.1%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.12
Upside
-1.1%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.9B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Growth at 9.3; weakest: Technical at 4.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.3, Value at 7.9, and Sentiment at 6.3; the weakest are Technical at 4.5, Catalyst at 4.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.12 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Valuation Strong Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year earnings growth falls below 5% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Commercial Loan Concentration
Trip ifCommercial loans exceed 80% of the loan portfolio from the current 77.2%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifStock price falls below the $80.24 stop level from the current $83.72.
- P4Breakout Momentum Accumulation
Trip ifMomentum score falls below 5.5 from the current 7.2.
- P5Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below -3% for 2 consecutive quarters.