Value
9.3/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.07
- ▸Attractively valued
IMXI · Why this verdict
Why International Money Express, In (IMXI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Value notes show a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.08, both flagged as attractively valued relative to growth. Valuation breakdown | If this value read holds, the forward P/E should stay low while the stock gradually re-rates over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA very low PEG ratio combined with 3 earnings misses in the last 4 quarters can indicate the market is correctly pricing in deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing a bargain. | ||
Quality notes cite an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at -247% of net income, indicating a severe divergence between reported earnings and actual cash generation. Quality breakdown | If this earnings-quality concern holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain deeply negative over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA single quarter's extreme FCF/NI divergence can be driven by one-time working-capital swings in a money-transfer business and may not persist into future periods. | ||
Momentum notes characterize the stock's move below the 200-day moving average as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, since the moving average itself is still rising 1.1% per month. Momentum breakdown | If this pullback interpretation is correct, the 200-day moving average should keep rising and price should reclaim it over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA rising moving average can lag price action for months even as the underlying trend genuinely reverses, meaning this reading could mislabel a real breakdown as a temporary pullback. | ||
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.75, reflecting that the prior price target has already been reached with just 3.0% upside against 5.9% downside at the current price. Engine gate (failed) | If this negative asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below zero over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets for money-transfer companies can be revised upward quickly following a single strong quarter, which would resolve the negative asymmetry without any price decline. | ||
Risk notes show an elevated put/call ratio of 3.20 alongside very high implied volatility of 184%, reflecting significant bearish positioning and priced-in uncertainty. Risk breakdown | If this bearish positioning is warranted, implied volatility should remain very high over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterSustained extreme implied volatility on a small-cap name can reflect structurally thin options liquidity rather than a genuine read on future price risk. | ||
Value notes show a forward P/E of 8.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.08, both flagged as attractively valued relative to growth.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- If this value read holds, the forward P/E should stay low while the stock gradually re-rates over the next 12 months.
CounterA very low PEG ratio combined with 3 earnings misses in the last 4 quarters can indicate the market is correctly pricing in deteriorating fundamentals rather than mispricing a bargain.
Quality notes cite an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at -247% of net income, indicating a severe divergence between reported earnings and actual cash generation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If this earnings-quality concern holds, the FCF-to-net-income ratio should remain deeply negative over the next 12 months.
CounterA single quarter's extreme FCF/NI divergence can be driven by one-time working-capital swings in a money-transfer business and may not persist into future periods.
Momentum notes characterize the stock's move below the 200-day moving average as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness, since the moving average itself is still rising 1.1% per month.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- If this pullback interpretation is correct, the 200-day moving average should keep rising and price should reclaim it over the next 12 months.
CounterA rising moving average can lag price action for months even as the underlying trend genuinely reverses, meaning this reading could mislabel a real breakdown as a temporary pullback.
The engine's asymmetry gate failed at -0.75, reflecting that the prior price target has already been reached with just 3.0% upside against 5.9% downside at the current price.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- If this negative asymmetry read holds, the ratio should remain below zero over the next 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets for money-transfer companies can be revised upward quickly following a single strong quarter, which would resolve the negative asymmetry without any price decline.
Risk notes show an elevated put/call ratio of 3.20 alongside very high implied volatility of 184%, reflecting significant bearish positioning and priced-in uncertainty.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- If this bearish positioning is warranted, implied volatility should remain very high over the next 12 months.
CounterSustained extreme implied volatility on a small-cap name can reflect structurally thin options liquidity rather than a genuine read on future price risk.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
International Money Express looks cheap on forward earnings multiples, but a severe earnings-quality red flag, a negative asymmetry setup at an already-reached price target, and extreme options volatility keep the risk/reward unfavorable despite the technical uptrend interpretation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 5.1 |
| Gross margin | 3.1 |
| Op margin | 0.0 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 9.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 4.4 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -247% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -15%
Momentum
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 7.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.5%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.7 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.1 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 0.4 |
Technical
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.7 |
| support resistance | 4.3 |
| 52w position | 8.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.7 |
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.5 |
| debt equity | 3.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸High IV: 145%
- ▸Above max pain $8
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:34d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.70
Upside
-5.0%
Downside
7.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 44 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.4B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Value at 9.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.0<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.3, Insider at 7.5, and Technical at 6.0; the weakest are Catalyst at 2.5, Momentum at 3.0, and Quality at 3.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.70 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Attractive Forward Valuation
Trip ifPrice falls more than 10% over the next 12 months, confirming the value gap was a value trap rather than a bargain.
- P2Earnings Quality Red Flag
Trip ifFCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Pullback Within Uptrend
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average slope falls below 0% for 2 consecutive months.
- P4Negative Asymmetry Reached Target
Trip ifAsymmetry ratio rises above 1.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P5Elevated Options Volatility
Trip ifImplied volatility falls below 100% for more than 2 consecutive quarters.