Value
5.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.8 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 2.8 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 40.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.17
IDR · Why this verdict
Why Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The risk/reward setup falls just short of the engine's asymmetry bar at the spot price, and options positioning skews defensive with an elevated put/call ratio of 2.25. Engine gate (failed) | The asymmetry ratio should clear the engine's 1.5 threshold and the put/call ratio should normalize toward a more balanced level over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio at 0.95 is only modestly below the 1.5 bar rather than deeply negative, and the position itself carries a high-conviction sizing recommendation, suggesting the shortfall is a thin gap rather than a broad negative signal. | ||
The business is described as high-quality, with excellent return on equity near 26%, strong margins around 43%, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score characterized as elite, reflecting a compounder profile of strong returns paired with growth. Quality breakdown | Return on equity, margins, and the Rule of 40 read should hold at or near these strong levels over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe data also flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at negative 8% of net income, meaning the strong accounting profitability is not yet being converted into cash. | ||
The company shows a strong growth profile, with the data citing 99% year-over-year growth, and a strong earnings beat streak of three out of the last four quarters. Bull case | Growth should remain strong, and the beat streak should continue or extend, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recently reported quarter actually missed estimates, showing the beat streak has already broken even as trailing growth still looks strong. | ||
Growth screens as cheap relative to earnings, with an extremely low PEG ratio of 0.18 even though the forward P/E itself sits at a much higher 42.4x. Valuation breakdown | The PEG ratio should hold at this low level, or the market should re-rate the shares higher as the cheap-growth read is recognized, over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company toward the bottom of its group on value, suggesting the market may already be pricing in the growth despite the low PEG reading. | ||
The setup is read as a temporary headwind, pairing high quality with weak near-term momentum, and the shares sit below their 200-day moving average even though that average is still rising, which the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness. Edge rationale | Momentum should recover above the engine's threshold and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months for the pullback read to be validated as temporary. | →Stable |
| CounterMomentum failed the engine's threshold by a meaningful margin, and volume shows distribution rather than accumulation, both of which weigh against the pullback being purely temporary. | ||
The risk/reward setup falls just short of the engine's asymmetry bar at the spot price, and options positioning skews defensive with an elevated put/call ratio of 2.25.
→StableEngine gate (failed)
- Expectation
- The asymmetry ratio should clear the engine's 1.5 threshold and the put/call ratio should normalize toward a more balanced level over the next 12 months.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio at 0.95 is only modestly below the 1.5 bar rather than deeply negative, and the position itself carries a high-conviction sizing recommendation, suggesting the shortfall is a thin gap rather than a broad negative signal.
The business is described as high-quality, with excellent return on equity near 26%, strong margins around 43%, a wide economic moat, and a Rule of 40 score characterized as elite, reflecting a compounder profile of strong returns paired with growth.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Return on equity, margins, and the Rule of 40 read should hold at or near these strong levels over the next 12 months.
CounterThe data also flags an earnings-quality red flag with free cash flow at negative 8% of net income, meaning the strong accounting profitability is not yet being converted into cash.
The company shows a strong growth profile, with the data citing 99% year-over-year growth, and a strong earnings beat streak of three out of the last four quarters.
→StableBull case
- Expectation
- Growth should remain strong, and the beat streak should continue or extend, over the next 12 months for this pillar to hold.
CounterThe most recently reported quarter actually missed estimates, showing the beat streak has already broken even as trailing growth still looks strong.
Growth screens as cheap relative to earnings, with an extremely low PEG ratio of 0.18 even though the forward P/E itself sits at a much higher 42.4x.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The PEG ratio should hold at this low level, or the market should re-rate the shares higher as the cheap-growth read is recognized, over the next 12 months.
CounterThe peer comparison ranks this company toward the bottom of its group on value, suggesting the market may already be pricing in the growth despite the low PEG reading.
The setup is read as a temporary headwind, pairing high quality with weak near-term momentum, and the shares sit below their 200-day moving average even though that average is still rising, which the data characterizes as a pullback within an uptrend rather than confirmed weakness.
→StableEdge rationale
- Expectation
- Momentum should recover above the engine's threshold and price should reclaim the 200-day moving average over the next 12 months for the pullback read to be validated as temporary.
CounterMomentum failed the engine's threshold by a meaningful margin, and volume shows distribution rather than accumulation, both of which weigh against the pullback being purely temporary.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Idaho Strategic Resources pairs a high-quality compounder profile with a strong growth rate and cheap growth-adjusted valuation, but near-term momentum is a temporary headwind with the shares in a pullback below their still-rising 200-day average, and the risk/reward setup sits just under the engine's asymmetry bar.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.8 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.0 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 26%
- ▸Strong margins: 43%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -8% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 99% YoY
Momentum
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 3.9 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 21, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.6 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 51%
Insider
7.5/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.1 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.3 |
| support resistance | 9.4 |
| 52w position | 0.9 |
| gap | 7.5 |
- ▸Extreme gap down (-6.7%) - potential reversal
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.0 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 7.4 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
- ▸High IV: 84%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the technical setup has not yet produced a breakout above resistance (PEG 0.17, quality 8.2/10, growth 10.0/10).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP_WAIT|ENTRY_STICKY:PRIOR_STILL_VIABLEPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:29d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.2<4.5
- 8K_CRITICAL:4.01
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.92
Upside
+28.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeTemporary headwind — High quality (8.2) with weak momentum (2.2)
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.2 and growth 10.0 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 1.92 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Quality at 8.2, and Insider at 7.5; the weakest are Momentum at 2.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1, and Value at 5.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.92 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Profile
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 26%.
- P2Strong Growth Profile
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 20% YoY from the current 99%.
- P3Cheap Growth Relative To Earnings
Trip ifPEG ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.18.
- P4Temporary Momentum Headwind
Trip ifThe 200-day moving average's 30-day slope turns negative (below 0%), confirming a downtrend rather than a pullback.
- P5Asymmetry Just Below Bar
Trip ifThe asymmetry ratio rises above 1.5 from the current 0.95, clearing the engine's bar.