Value
5.5/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 3.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 33.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.04
HZO · Why this verdict
Why MarineMax, Inc. (FL) (HZO) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score3.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
MarineMax has strong cash conversion and positive price momentum near its 52-week high, but the $52.59 price is 18.3% above the $42.98 analyst target, revenue is declining 7% and new boat sales are 60.9% of the mix.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At $52.59 the stock trades 18.3% above the $42.98 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against a 15% modeled downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterTargets for cyclical retailers can lag a sharp rerating, and a strong earnings report could prompt rapid upward revisions. | ||
New boat sales make up 60.9% of the product mix, concentrating revenue in a cyclical, discretionary category. Bear case | Revenue mix should diversify toward service and used boats with new-boat share falling below 60% over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA consumer downturn or higher interest rates would hit new boat demand and the whole business at once. | ||
Revenue is declining 7% and growth ranks near the bottom of peers. Growth breakdown | Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterBoat purchases are financed discretionary spending, so a continued slowdown could extend the revenue decline. | ||
MarineMax split the last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the latest quarter a miss at $0.81 against $0.83. Earnings | EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe miss in January 2026 was -156.4% and results swing between beats and misses, so earnings are hard to forecast. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% of net income, price is above the 200-day average and on-balance volume is rising. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should stay positive and price should hold above the $52.27 stop level. | →Stable |
| CounterA cash conversion of 1000% comes from near-zero net income, so it overstates earnings strength, and forward P/E is 33.4x. | ||
At $52.59 the stock trades 18.3% above the $42.98 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against a 15% modeled downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price.
CounterTargets for cyclical retailers can lag a sharp rerating, and a strong earnings report could prompt rapid upward revisions.
New boat sales make up 60.9% of the product mix, concentrating revenue in a cyclical, discretionary category.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Revenue mix should diversify toward service and used boats with new-boat share falling below 60% over 12 months.
CounterA consumer downturn or higher interest rates would hit new boat demand and the whole business at once.
Revenue is declining 7% and growth ranks near the bottom of peers.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue should stabilize and return to positive YoY growth within 12 months.
CounterBoat purchases are financed discretionary spending, so a continued slowdown could extend the revenue decline.
MarineMax split the last 4 quarters 2 beats and 2 misses, with the latest quarter a miss at $0.81 against $0.83.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should come in at or above consensus in the next 2 reports, starting November 2026.
CounterThe miss in January 2026 was -156.4% and results swing between beats and misses, so earnings are hard to forecast.
Cash conversion is excellent at 1000% of net income, price is above the 200-day average and on-balance volume is rising.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should stay positive and price should hold above the $52.27 stop level.
CounterA cash conversion of 1000% comes from near-zero net income, so it overstates earnings strength, and forward P/E is 33.4x.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.2 |
| ROA | 1.1 |
| Gross margin | 2.8 |
| Op margin | 2.4 |
| Net margin | 0.1 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 3.1 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 1000% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.8/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.8 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -7%
Momentum
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 2.5 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.6 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.3 |
| quality rank | 0.2 |
| growth rank | 0.9 |
Technical
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.6 |
| 52w position | 10.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.5 |
| days to cover | 8.1 |
| volatility | 10.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 7.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.3 |
| debt equity | 4.7 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 4.00
- ▸Above max pain $45
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.4>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.21
Upside
-18.2%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.70>1.3, MCap $1.2B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the ASYMMETRY gate's -1.2=NEGATIVE outcome against Value at 5.5 and asymmetric R:R of -1.21.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 5.5, Momentum at 5.4, and Insider at 5.3; the weakest are Growth at 0.8, Peer rank at 2.4, and Catalyst at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.21 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice rises more than 25% above the $42.98 analyst target with no target revision.
- P2New Boat Sales Concentration
Trip ifNew boat sales exceed 65% of revenue from the current 60.9%.
- P3Declining Revenue
Trip ifRevenue decline exceeds 10% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Mixed Earnings Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters.
- P5Strong Cash Conversion And Price Strength
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 0 for 2 consecutive quarters, or price drops below the $52.27 stop level.