Value
8.1/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 6.4 |
| P/S | 9.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 8.2 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.80
- ▸Attractively valued
HVT · Why this verdict
Why Haverty Furniture Companies, In (HVT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Haverty Furniture has a perfect 9/9 Piotroski score, 154% cash conversion and a steady beat record, but the $29.54 price is already 5.0% above the $28.05 analyst target and earnings are due in 4 days.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Haverty beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed and an average surprise of about 10.5%. Earnings | EPS should meet or beat consensus in the report due in 4 days and in the following 3 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterBeats are small ($0.25 against $0.23 last quarter) and one quarter was merely in line, so the margin for error is thin. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 154% of net income, supported by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should stay above 100% of net income over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow can exceed earnings because of working-capital release, which reverses when inventory is rebuilt. | ||
At $29.54 the stock trades 5.0% above the $28.05 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against an 8.6% modeled downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings report in 4 days could prompt quick target increases, closing the gap. | ||
Supplier concentration is flagged: 63.0% of goods are not produced domestically, exposing the retailer to import and tariff risk. Bear case | Supply costs and availability should hold steady without margin disruption over 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterTariffs or shipping disruption on imported goods could compress furniture margins that are already thin (operating margin credit 1.3). | ||
Momentum is 7.2/10 with a golden cross and price 1.1% from the 52-week high, but the put/call ratio is 7.71. Key risks | Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and the $28.18 stop level. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 7.71 into earnings and $591,107 of insider selling suggest a pullback risk after the run to highs. | ||
Haverty beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with none missed and an average surprise of about 10.5%.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat consensus in the report due in 4 days and in the following 3 quarters.
CounterBeats are small ($0.25 against $0.23 last quarter) and one quarter was merely in line, so the margin for error is thin.
Cash conversion is excellent at 154% of net income, supported by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should stay above 100% of net income over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow can exceed earnings because of working-capital release, which reverses when inventory is rebuilt.
At $29.54 the stock trades 5.0% above the $28.05 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against an 8.6% modeled downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise targets above the current price.
CounterA strong earnings report in 4 days could prompt quick target increases, closing the gap.
Supplier concentration is flagged: 63.0% of goods are not produced domestically, exposing the retailer to import and tariff risk.
↑ImprovingBear case
- Expectation
- Supply costs and availability should hold steady without margin disruption over 12 months.
CounterTariffs or shipping disruption on imported goods could compress furniture margins that are already thin (operating margin credit 1.3).
Momentum is 7.2/10 with a golden cross and price 1.1% from the 52-week high, but the put/call ratio is 7.71.
↑ImprovingKey risks
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and the $28.18 stop level.
CounterA put/call ratio of 7.71 into earnings and $591,107 of insider selling suggest a pullback risk after the run to highs.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.5 |
| ROA | 1.7 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 1.5 |
| Current ratio | 6.1 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 6.5 |
| Piotroski F | 10.0 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 154% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 9/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.4 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 7.7 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 7.3 |
Insider
4.2/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 3.0 |
| holder change | 5.5 |
- ▸Notable insider selling — $591,107 (0.130% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.0 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 4.0 |
Technical
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.5 |
| support resistance | 5.4 |
| 52w position | 9.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 10.0 |
| volatility | 5.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 6.3 |
- ▸High IV: 66%
- ▸Above max pain $12
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.8 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Earnings in 5 days
- ▸Dividend: 4.6%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:5.2>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:5.2<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
-0.19
Upside
-1.0%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 57, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.5B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.2=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Growth at 7.2, and Technical at 6.3; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.0, Insider at 4.2, and Momentum at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Steady Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in the next report or in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifFree cash flow falls below 80% of net income from the current 154%.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 8% below $29.54 with the $28.05 target unchanged.
- P4Import Supplier Concentration
Trip ifImported goods share exceeds 70% of supply from the current 63.0%.
- P5Breakout Near Highs Hedged Options
Trip ifPrice drops below the $28.18 stop level from the current $29.54.