Value
6.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 1.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.7x
- ▸PEG: 6.67
HTB · Why this verdict
Why HomeTrust Bancshares (HTB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
HomeTrust Bancshares has beaten earnings in all 4 of the last 4 quarters and trades at a forward P/E near 11x, but the $48.10 price is already 2.4% above the $46.96 analyst target, limiting upside.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Margins are strong at 31% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but the bank has no competitive moat and ROE scores only 3.8/10. Quality breakdown | Margins should stay above 25% with ROE improving over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith no moat and modest ROE, a regional bank has little to protect margins if deposit costs rise. | ||
HomeTrust beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 15.1% and $1.11 actual against $0.90 estimated in the latest quarter. Earnings | EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters. | ↑Improving |
| CounterA bank beating by 15% on average may be benefiting from conservative estimates, and the streak has to keep up against higher bars. | ||
HomeTrust trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x with a PEG of 0.65, flagged as attractively valued. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E should remain below roughly 13x as earnings grow. | →Stable |
| CounterPeer value rank is only mid-range at 5.5, so the stock is not unusually cheap versus other regional banks. | ||
At $48.10 the stock trades 2.4% above the $46.96 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against a 6.3% modeled downside. Targets | Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise the target above the current price. | →Stable |
| CounterLight analyst coverage means targets could be revised quickly upward after the strong beat streak. | ||
Momentum is 7.3/10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, though the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.00. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and the $45.98 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA put/call ratio of 2.00 and insider selling of $511,348 suggest some market participants are positioned for a pullback. | ||
Margins are strong at 31% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, but the bank has no competitive moat and ROE scores only 3.8/10.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Margins should stay above 25% with ROE improving over the next 12 months.
CounterWith no moat and modest ROE, a regional bank has little to protect margins if deposit costs rise.
HomeTrust beat EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, with an average surprise of about 15.1% and $1.11 actual against $0.90 estimated in the latest quarter.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS should continue to meet or beat consensus over the next 4 quarters.
CounterA bank beating by 15% on average may be benefiting from conservative estimates, and the streak has to keep up against higher bars.
HomeTrust trades at a forward P/E of 10.9x with a PEG of 0.65, flagged as attractively valued.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E should remain below roughly 13x as earnings grow.
CounterPeer value rank is only mid-range at 5.5, so the stock is not unusually cheap versus other regional banks.
At $48.10 the stock trades 2.4% above the $46.96 analyst target, leaving no analyst-implied upside against a 6.3% modeled downside.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Further gains over 12 months require analysts to raise the target above the current price.
CounterLight analyst coverage means targets could be revised quickly upward after the strong beat streak.
Momentum is 7.3/10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume, though the put/call ratio is elevated at 2.00.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and the $45.98 stop level.
CounterA put/call ratio of 2.00 and insider selling of $511,348 suggest some market participants are positioned for a pullback.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.8 |
| ROA | 1.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
4.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.4 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 9.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.3 |
| Price target | 7.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
Insider
4.4/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 3.3 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.5 |
| quality rank | 5.1 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
Technical
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 7.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.9 |
| days to cover | 1.7 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 8.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.00
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:83d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (3)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=-0.0%)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.7B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Catalyst at 7.1; weakest: Insider at 4.4. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Catalyst at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.3, and Value at 6.2; the weakest are Insider at 4.4, Peer rank at 4.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.6. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 3 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS misses estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P2Reasonable Bank Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 14x without matching earnings growth.
- P3Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifPrice falls more than 6% below $48.10 with no change in the $46.96 target.
- P4Strong Margins No Moat
Trip ifNet margin falls below 25% from the current 31%.
- P5Bullish Momentum Hedged Options
Trip ifPrice drops below the $45.98 stop level, or momentum score falls below 5.0 from 7.3.