Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.1 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.5 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.5x
- ▸Attractively valued
HPQ · Why this verdict
Why HP (HPQ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 3.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.1 |
| Op margin | 2.8 |
| Net margin | 2.2 |
| Current ratio | 3.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.5 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 135% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.8 |
| EPS growth | 5.2 |
Momentum
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 7.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.3 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 3.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $834,327 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.9 |
| quality rank | 1.1 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.6 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 7.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.4 |
| days to cover | 2.7 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 1.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
- ▸High short interest: 15%
- ▸High IV: 69%
- ▸Above max pain $13
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.8 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/0M
- ▸Dividend: 469.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST_CLUSTER(3)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:79d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (3)
- MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.25
Upside
-18.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMOMENTUM_CONT — Trend continuation, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:4.3<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.25 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.4, Catalyst at 6.5, and Technical at 5.1; the weakest are Risk (lower is worse) at 3.5, Quality at 4.2, and Peer rank at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 3 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.