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HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.Sell5.1·$37.23-5.13%
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Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Drilling

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.23: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality.

Helmerich & Payne provides contract drilling services through three segments: North America Solutions (land rigs, ~63% of 2025 revenues), International Solutions (Middle East, Latin America, ~21%), and Offshore Solutions (~14%), with the KCA Deutag acquisition in January 2025... Read more

$37.23+10.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#7 of 10 Oil & Gas Drilling
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield9.16%
IncomeYield2.55%(5y avg 4.06%)Payout60.91%
Stop $35.84Target $40.98(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$41.20+10.7%15 analysts
$40.98our TP
$37.23price
$41.20mean
$30
$47

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.23: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 51d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202651d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-0.3% upside)
Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)28.4
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn-9.4%
ROE-13.0%
Rev Growth-8.2%
Beta0.57
Dividend2.55%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.69bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest drilling customer12%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from drilling services performed for our largest drilling customer totaled approximately 12.0 percent ($451.3 million) and 11.0 percent ($302.6 million) of our total consolidated revenues during fiscal years 2025 and 2024'
  • LOWGeographicSaudi Arabia6.9%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenues generated by Saudi Arabia within the International Solutions operating segment contributed approximately 6.9 percent ($259.0 million) of our consolidated operating revenues in fiscal year 2025. All of our revenues in Saudi Arabia are from contracts with the national oil company.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    J. Kevin Vann retiring as SVP and CFO effective June 30, 2026. Todd Scruggs, VP Corporate Finance and Treasurer, appointed to succeed as SVP and CFO effective July 1, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.7
Gross Margin
2.3
Moat
3.2
Current Ratio
6.1
Piotroski F
8.9
No competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9Quality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.1
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
5.6
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 51d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.95Resistance $41.82

Price Targets

$36
$41
A.Upside+10.1%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (51d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $37.23: Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: High short interest: 12%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $35.84. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $40.98 (+10.2% upside). Prior stop was $35.84. Stop-loss: $35.84.

What are the risks of investing in HP?

Target reached (-0.3% upside); Quality below floor (2.6 < 4.0).

Is HP overvalued or undervalued?

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 28.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HP?

25 analysts cover HP with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $41.

What does Helmerich & Payne, Inc. do?Helmerich & Payne provides contract drilling services through three segments: North America Solutions (land rigs, ~63%...

Helmerich & Payne provides contract drilling services through three segments: North America Solutions (land rigs, ~63% of 2025 revenues), International Solutions (Middle East, Latin America, ~21%), and Offshore Solutions (~14%), with the KCA Deutag acquisition in January 2025 significantly expanding its global footprint. Revenue is earned through dayrate drilling contracts. The largest consolidated drilling customer was ~12% of total revenues; the largest International Solutions customer was 32.3% of that segment.

Related stocks: RIG (Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)) · BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) · PDS (Precision Drilling Corporation) · SOC (Sable Offshore Corp.) · NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.)
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