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HLIHoulihan Lokey, Inc.Sell6.2·$128.34-7.72%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Houlihan Lokey carries a high-quality franchise with strong operating margins and a favorable long-term earnings record, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, declining revenue, and a risk/reward just below the asymmetry threshold argue for holding existing positions and waiting for momentum to stabilize before committing new capital.

Thesis pillars

  • Quality Franchise Reasonable ValuationStable
  • Revenue Decline Growth HeadwindStable
  • Confirmed Technical DowntrendDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Capital Markets

Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial... Read more

$128.34+15.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#21 of 49 Capital Markets
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield1.92%(5y avg 1.72%)Payout38.59%sustainable
Stop $119.36Target $147.68(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.3:1
Analyst target$169.75+32.3%8 analysts
$147.68our TP
$128.34price
$169.75mean
$200

Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 2026· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.3
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE18.3%
Rev Growth-4.6%
Beta0.96
Dividend1.92%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.75neutral
IV45%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicinternational operations32%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2026, we earned approximately 32.2% of our revenue from our international operations.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Vol Acceleration
1.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d — confirmed downtrendVolume surge (3.6x avg) on selloff
GatesMomentum 3.0<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
42 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $112.83Resistance $147.00

Price Targets

$119
$148
A.Upside+15.1%
A.R:R1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.0 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $119.36. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $147.68 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $119.36. Stop-loss: $119.36.

What are the risks of investing in HLI?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HLI overvalued or undervalued?

Houlihan Lokey, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLI?

14 analysts cover HLI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $170.

What does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. do?Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate...

Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial professionals. Revenue is driven primarily by advisory fees, a substantial portion contingent on transaction completion, with approximately 32% derived from international operations in fiscal 2026. The firm employed approximately 2,800 people as of March 31, 2026.

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