Houlihan Lokey carries a high-quality franchise with strong operating margins and a favorable long-term earnings record, but a confirmed technical downtrend, a recent earnings miss, declining revenue, and a risk/reward just below the asymmetry threshold argue for holding existing positions and waiting for momentum to stabilize before committing new capital.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Franchise Reasonable Valuation→Stable
- Revenue Decline Growth Headwind→Stable
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial... Read more
Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-31Recent Developments — Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS HOULIHAN LOKEY ($HLI) Releases Q1 2027 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS HOULIHAN LOKEY ($HLI) Releases Q1 2027 Earnings - quiverquant.com — quiverquant.com positive
- NEWS Houlihan Lokey (NYSE:HLI) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings, Stock Drops - StockStory — StockStory negative
- NEWS Houlihan Lokey (NYSE:HLI) Reports Sales Below Analyst Estimates In Q2 CY2026 Earnings, Stock Drops - FinancialContent — FinancialContent negative
- NEWS Earnings Flash (HLI) Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Posts Q1 Adjusted EPS $1.35 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $1.64 - marketscreen — marketscreener.com negative
Generated 2026-07-31T02:23:40Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational operations32%10-K Item 1A: 'In fiscal 2026, we earned approximately 32.2% of our revenue from our international operations.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $128.34, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $119.36. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $147.68 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $119.36. Stop-loss: $119.36.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Houlihan Lokey, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.3 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts cover HLI with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $170.
What does Houlihan Lokey, Inc. do?Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate...
Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank established in 1972, operating across three segments — Corporate Finance (M&A and capital solutions), Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory — from more than 30 offices worldwide with over 1,900 financial professionals. Revenue is driven primarily by advisory fees, a substantial portion contingent on transaction completion, with approximately 32% derived from international operations in fiscal 2026. The firm employed approximately 2,800 people as of March 31, 2026.