Value
8.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.8 |
| P/S | 7.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸PEG: 0.13
- ▸Attractively valued
HKD · Why this verdict
Why AMTD Digital (HKD) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
AMTD Digital scores as a high-quality, deeply undervalued software business with wide margins and a Rule of 40 reading of 198, but cash conversion is a red flag, the stock is down about 69% from its high and the data set lacks earnings history.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Quality scores 7.7/10 on an excellent ROE of 25%, 40% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterQuality metrics at a small, sharply derated company can reflect one-time or non-operating gains rather than a durable software franchise. | ||
The business is flagged as attractively valued with a PEG of 0.12 and a 62% margin of safety, described as extreme undervaluation. Valuation breakdown | The valuation gap should narrow as the share price recovers toward estimated intrinsic value over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA 62% margin of safety after a 69% drawdown may signal that the market distrusts the reported numbers, not that the stock is mispriced. | ||
Earnings quality carries a red flag: free cash flow runs at -355% of net income despite headline margins of 40%. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income within the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterIf profits do not convert to cash, reported margins and the Rule of 40 reading of 198 may overstate true economic returns. | ||
Momentum is 6.7/10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume after a 69% drawdown from the 52-week high. Momentum breakdown | Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and above the $1.59 stop level. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMomentum from a depressed base of $1.72 can reverse quickly, and the entry sits only 4.8% above the stop. | ||
The nearest resistance take-profit is $1.79, only 7.2% above the $1.72 price, against a 4.8% downside to the stop. Targets | Price should break above the $1.79 resistance level to open further upside over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith no analyst target and no earnings history in the data, upside beyond resistance cannot be anchored to any estimate. | ||
Quality scores 7.7/10 on an excellent ROE of 25%, 40% margins, a wide economic moat and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 20% and margins above 30% over the next 12 months.
CounterQuality metrics at a small, sharply derated company can reflect one-time or non-operating gains rather than a durable software franchise.
The business is flagged as attractively valued with a PEG of 0.12 and a 62% margin of safety, described as extreme undervaluation.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation gap should narrow as the share price recovers toward estimated intrinsic value over 12 months.
CounterA 62% margin of safety after a 69% drawdown may signal that the market distrusts the reported numbers, not that the stock is mispriced.
Earnings quality carries a red flag: free cash flow runs at -355% of net income despite headline margins of 40%.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow should turn positive relative to net income within the next 12 months.
CounterIf profits do not convert to cash, reported margins and the Rule of 40 reading of 198 may overstate true economic returns.
Momentum is 6.7/10 with a golden cross, price above the 200-day average and rising on-balance volume after a 69% drawdown from the 52-week high.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price should hold above the 200-day moving average and above the $1.59 stop level.
CounterMomentum from a depressed base of $1.72 can reverse quickly, and the entry sits only 4.8% above the stop.
The nearest resistance take-profit is $1.79, only 7.2% above the $1.72 price, against a 4.8% downside to the stop.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- Price should break above the $1.79 resistance level to open further upside over 12 months.
CounterWith no analyst target and no earnings history in the data, upside beyond resistance cannot be anchored to any estimate.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 8.5 |
| ROA | 4.9 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.8 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 9.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 25%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -355% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
7.5/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.3 |
| quality rank | 8.5 |
| growth rank | 9.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.0 |
| support resistance | 4.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.9 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 4.1 |
| beta | 3.5 |
| debt equity | 8.3 |
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 25%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| news activity | 5.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Deep value: 57% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_A_DEEP_VALUE|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.4<4.5
Warning (1)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
6.7%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.5B) below institutional reach
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -69% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
The STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 4.4<4.5 outcome against Growth at 10.0 and asymmetric R:R of 0.00.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.9, and Quality at 7.7; the weakest are Technical at 3.6, Momentum at 4.4, and Catalyst at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Compounder Profile
Trip ifReturn on equity falls below 15% from the current 25%.
- P2Deep Value With Margin Of Safety
Trip ifThe margin of safety shrinks below 20% from the current 62% as the price rises without earnings growth.
- P3Cash Conversion Red Flag
Trip ifFree cash flow to net income stays below -100% for 4 consecutive quarters.
- P4Breakout Momentum After Drawdown
Trip ifPrice falls below the $1.59 stop level from the current $1.72.
- P5Limited Near Term Upside To Resistance
Trip ifPrice fails to rise above $1.79 and drops more than 4.8% over the next 2 months.