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HBMHudbay Minerals Inc.Sell6.3·$22.75+0.00%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

A copper miner with wide economic moat characteristics, 28% operating margins, and 27% year-over-year growth trades at an attractive valuation but with the stock within 1.7% of its analyst price target and a reward-to-risk ratio of roughly 0.2-to-1, the favorable fundamental picture is offset by an unfavorable near-term setup and an inconsistent recent earnings delivery pattern.

Thesis pillars

  • Exceptional 27pct Revenue GrowthDeteriorating
  • Price Exhaustion Near TargetImproving
  • Wide Moat Quality FranchiseImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Hudbay Minerals Inc. (HBM) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Copper

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.75: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver. It... Read more

$22.75+27.0% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 7 Copper
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield4.72%
IncomeYield0.13%(5y avg 0.22%)Payout0.87%sustainable
Stop $21.16Target $28.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$33.21+46.0%6 analysts
$28.89our TP
$22.75price
$33.21mean
$41

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.75: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-31
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202690d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Wide economic moat
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative news sentiment (-0.67)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.2
P/E (Fwd)12.1
Mkt Cap$10.1B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE16.7%
Rev Growth17.7%
Beta
Dividend0.13%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV65%elevated
Max Pain$15-34.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
2.4
Bollinger
2.9
52w Position
4.2
Gap
6.0
GatesMomentum 6.9>=5.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $19.70Resistance $23.73

Price Targets

$21
$29
A.Upside+27.0%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HBM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $22.75: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.16. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HBM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.89 (+27.0% upside). Prior stop was $21.16. Stop-loss: $21.16.

What are the risks of investing in HBM?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).

Is HBM overvalued or undervalued?

Hudbay Minerals Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.2 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HBM?

24 analysts cover HBM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $33.

What does Hudbay Minerals Inc. do?Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and...

Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver. It owns 100% interest in Copper Mountain mine located approximately 20 kilometers south of Princeton, British Columbia, in the Similkameen valley. Hudbay Minerals Inc. was founded in 1927 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: ERO (Ero Copper Corp.) · TECK (Teck Resources Ltd) · TGB (Trekor Metals Limited) · IE (Ivanhoe Electric Inc.) · FCX (Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.)
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