Ero Copper has exceptional underlying fundamentals — 110% revenue growth, 32% margins, a wide economic moat, and a strong financial-health score — but the stock has run to its technical ceiling with only 4.1% headroom to the price target at an unfavorable 0.6-to-1 risk/reward; an extremely elevated put/call ratio of roughly 11 signals significant hedging demand, and free cash flow converts at only 16% of net income — a red flag suggesting reported earnings are substantially overstating actual cash generation.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Put Call Bearish Signal↑Improving
- Price At Target No Asymmetry↑Improving
- Fcf Cash Conversion Red Flag→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Copper
Sell if holding. At $26.35, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced... Read more
Sell if holding. At $26.35, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-30Recent Developments — Ero Copper Corp.
Latest news
- NEWS Ero Copper (TSE:ERO) Given New C$50.00 Price Target at National Bank Financial - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS The Goldman Sachs Group Downgrades Ero Copper (TSE:ERO) to Hold - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS Goldman Sachs downgrades Ero Copper (ERO) - MSN — MSN negative
- NEWS Ero Copper: A Copper Growth Story Trading at a Discount - TradingView — Track All Markets — TradingView — Track All Markets positive
- NEWS Ero Copper Corp. (TSE:ERO) Given Average Rating of "Moderate Buy" by Brokerages - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-07-30T22:23:47Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $26.35, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $24.51. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $30.49 (+15.7% upside). Prior stop was $24.51. Stop-loss: $24.51.
Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2); Elevated risk factors.
Ero Copper Corp. trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover ERO with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $36.
What does Ero Copper Corp. do?Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship...
Ero Copper Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. Its flagship asset includes Caraíba operations that comprise the production and sale of copper concentrates located in Bahia State, Brazil, as well as gold and silver produced and sold as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.