Value
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.5 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 6.1 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 21.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
GOOG · Why this verdict
Why Alphabet (GOOG) is rated BUY WAIT
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictBUY WAIT
Overall score6.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Alphabet combines a wide-moat, high-margin business (ROE 49%, margins 55%) and 24% YoY growth with a price 15.8% below the $367.45 analyst target, but momentum is poor and revenue is concentrated in online advertising.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Alphabet earns excellent returns (ROE 49%) on strong margins of 55% behind a wide economic moat, supporting a quality score of 8.3. Quality breakdown | ROE should stay above 40% and margins above 50% over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow covers only 9% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, which suggests heavy capital spending is absorbing the profits. | ||
Revenue is growing 24% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $119.8B versus $96.4B a year earlier, and next-quarter revenue is estimated near $127.8B. Growth breakdown | Quarterly revenue should reach about $127.8B next quarter and keep growing above 15% YoY. | →Stable |
| CounterGrowth at this scale depends on advertising demand and heavy investment, and any ad slowdown would hit a business with concentrated revenue. | ||
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and 11 of the last 12, but the most recent report missed slightly at $2.85 versus $2.91. Avg surprise pct | EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-28 report, only 4 days away. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe latest quarter missed and the stock fell to oversold levels, suggesting the market now expects less than the historical beat rate. | ||
The $317.28 price is 15.8% below the $367.45 analyst target, with the stock oversold (RSI 24) below a 200-day average that is still rising. Upside pct | Price should recover toward the $367.45 target over 12 months while holding above the $292.77 stop. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum is 1.5/10 with falling on-balance volume, so the pullback may extend further before earnings. | ||
Revenue is concentrated in online advertising and 52.0% comes from international markets, leaving results exposed to ad cycles and foreign regulation. Bear case | Non-advertising revenue should grow faster than total revenue so advertising concentration declines over time. | →Stable |
| CounterAdvertising demand has stayed strong and 24% growth shows the concentration has not yet limited results. | ||
Alphabet earns excellent returns (ROE 49%) on strong margins of 55% behind a wide economic moat, supporting a quality score of 8.3.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE should stay above 40% and margins above 50% over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow covers only 9% of net income, flagged as an earnings-quality red flag, which suggests heavy capital spending is absorbing the profits.
Revenue is growing 24% YoY, with the latest quarter at about $119.8B versus $96.4B a year earlier, and next-quarter revenue is estimated near $127.8B.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Quarterly revenue should reach about $127.8B next quarter and keep growing above 15% YoY.
CounterGrowth at this scale depends on advertising demand and heavy investment, and any ad slowdown would hit a business with concentrated revenue.
EPS beat estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and 11 of the last 12, but the most recent report missed slightly at $2.85 versus $2.91.
↓DeterioratingAvg surprise pct
- Expectation
- EPS should meet or beat the estimate at the 2026-10-28 report, only 4 days away.
CounterThe latest quarter missed and the stock fell to oversold levels, suggesting the market now expects less than the historical beat rate.
The $317.28 price is 15.8% below the $367.45 analyst target, with the stock oversold (RSI 24) below a 200-day average that is still rising.
↑ImprovingUpside pct
- Expectation
- Price should recover toward the $367.45 target over 12 months while holding above the $292.77 stop.
CounterMomentum is 1.5/10 with falling on-balance volume, so the pullback may extend further before earnings.
Revenue is concentrated in online advertising and 52.0% comes from international markets, leaving results exposed to ad cycles and foreign regulation.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Non-advertising revenue should grow faster than total revenue so advertising concentration declines over time.
CounterAdvertising demand has stayed strong and 24% growth shows the concentration has not yet limited results.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 8.6 |
| Gross margin | 8.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 9.2 |
| FCF quality | 0.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 49%
- ▸Strong margins: 55%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 9% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
Growth
9.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 8.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 24% YoY
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 10.0 |
| vol acceleration | 8.3 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 30, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+1.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
- ▸Volume surge (2.1x avg) on up move
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 4.2 |
| Analyst rating | 8.6 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 31%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.1 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 5.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.0 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| days to cover | 7.9 |
| volatility | 6.3 |
| put call | 7.2 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.2 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
- ▸Above max pain $200
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 7.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Growth is outpacing valuation and the technical setup has confirmed a breakout above resistance (PEG 1.11, quality 8.3/10, growth 9.2/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_C2_GARP|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1|ENTRY_STICKY:WITHIN_BANDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:NO_DATE
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.83
Upside
+14.2%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
STARTER
SetupOversold Bounce — Oversold RSI 30, near Bollinger lower, volume surge
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The C-path quality+growth combination triggered the STRONG_BUY_WAIT verdict: quality 8.3 and growth 9.3 both clear their thresholds, with asymmetric R:R of 2.83 supporting the read.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 9.2, Quality at 8.3, and Technical at 7.3; the weakest are Insider at 5.0, Catalyst at 5.2, and Value at 5.3. The V9 engine cleared all gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.83 and an engine sizing output of STARTER.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat High Returns
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 30% or ROE falls below 30% from the current 49%.
- P2Strong Revenue Growth
Trip ifRevenue growth falls below 12% YoY for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Earnings Beat Record
Trip ifEPS surprise stays below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4Analyst Upside Pullback
Trip ifPrice falls below $292.77, the stop level, from the current $317.28.
- P5Advertising And International Concentration
Trip ifQuarterly revenue falls below $110B, the level two quarters ago, from the latest $119.8B.